Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions
Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1308044111
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发表时间：
2014-03-11
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Notenbaert, An
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Havlik, Petr;Valin, Hugo;Notenbaert, An
畜牧业占人为温室气体排放量的12%。畜牧生产系统的可持续集约化可能成为减缓气候变化的关键技术。然而，畜牧生产系统差异很大，使气候减缓政策的执行成为一项艰巨的挑战。在这里，我们提供了一个经济模型的结果，该模型使用了畜牧生产系统的详细和高分辨率的表示。我们预计，到2030年，向更高效系统的自主过渡每年将减少7.36亿公吨二氧化碳当量（MtCO（2）e.y（-1））的排放量，主要是通过避免1.62亿公顷自然土地的转换产生的排放。针对农业和土地利用变化部门排放的适度减缓政策，碳价格为每吨CO（2）e 10美元，可减少3，223 MtCO（2）e.y（-1）。畜牧业系统转型将贡献21%的减排总量，畜牧业生产的内部和区域间转移将贡献40%，所有其他机制将增加39%。如果只针对土地利用变化排放的政策，也可以实现3，068 MtCO（2）e.y（-1）的类似减排。严格的气候政策可能导致全球人均每天减少200千卡的粮食供应。我们发现，针对土地利用变化排放的缓解政策比仅针对牲畜排放的政策效率高5到10倍（以“总减排卡路里成本”衡量）。因此，结合针对土地利用变化的气候政策，促进向更具生产力的畜牧生产系统过渡似乎是实现理想的气候和粮食供应结果的最有效杠杆。
Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO(2)e.y(-1)), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions fromboth the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO(2)e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO(2)e.y(-1). Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra-and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO(2)e.y(-1) could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient-measured in "total abatement calorie cost"-than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes.