Potential responses of terrestrial biodiversity in Southern Africa to anthropogenic climate change
Potential responses of terrestrial biodiversity in Southern Africa to anthropogenic climate change
复制标题
南部非洲陆地生物多样性对人为气候变化的潜在反应
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
W. Thuiller
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Midgley;W. Thuiller
在物种一级数据收集的支持下进行的关键研究，提供了早期迹象，表明未减缓的变化对南部非洲生态系统和生物多样性的潜在影响。这表明生物多样性的一个重大威胁，无论是从不断变化的生物气候适宜性和不断变化的大气CO2水平，似乎会影响木本和草本植物之间的竞争平衡，占主导地位的热带稀树草原生物群落的这一地区。模拟工作表明，未缓解的气候变化对该地区的重大影响，但必须认识到，其中一些可能导致过度估计的速度和程度的潜在影响的生物气候模拟等方法的基础假设。总的趋势和各类研究之间的一致性程度确实支持在气候变化未得到缓解的情况下对南部非洲很大一部分生物多样性的高度关注。生态系统结构的最显著变化（木本植物覆盖的增加和减少）以及相关的动物多样性变化预计将出现在该区域占主导地位的稀树草原植被类型，而冬季降雨区预计将出现最显著的生物多样性损失。为发现气候变化的早期迹象而开展的后续工作确定了高潜在影响区域和低潜在影响区域，而为检验与整个区域气候变化影响的未来演变有关的一些重要假设而开展的实验性工作很少，而且迫切需要。
Key studies supported by species-level data collection have provided early indications of the potential implications of unmitigated change for the ecosystems and biodiversity of southern Africa. These suggest a significant threat to biodiversity, both from changing bioclimatic suitability and changing atmospheric CO2 level that seems to affect the competitive balance between woody and herbaceous plants in the dominant savanna biome of this region. Modeling efforts suggest significant implications of unmitigated climate change for this region, but assumptions underpinning methods such as bioclimatic modeling must be recognized, some of which might lead to over estimates of the rate and extent of the potential impacts. General trends and level of coincidence between various types of studies do support a high degree of concern for a substantial portion of southern African biodiversity under unmitigated climate-change scenarios. The most significant changes in ecosystem structure (both increases and decreases in woody plant cover), and associated faunal diversity changes, are projected in the dominant savanna vegetation type in this region, while the most significant biodiversity loss is projected for the winter rainfall region. Follow-up work to detect early signs of climate change identify regions of high- and low-potential impacts, and experimental work to test some important hypotheses relating to the future evolution of climate-change impacts across the region are very few and urgently required.