Transitioning Into and Out of Problem Drinking Across Seven Years
Transitioning Into and Out of Problem Drinking Across Seven Years
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DOI：
10.15288/jsad.2010.71.210
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发表时间：
2010-03-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Weisner, Constance
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Delucchi, Kevin L.;Weisner, Constance
目的：用马尔可夫模型检验问题饮酒者转换成问题饮酒和退出问题饮酒的程度。方法：研究参与者(N=1350)随机从一个县的普通人群和连续入院的同一县的公立和私立酒精治疗项目中抽取，并在1年、3年、5年和7年的随访中进行评估。在基线上，所有人都符合饮酒问题的标准。如果个人在前12个月内报告了三项标准中的至少两项(根据《精神疾病诊断和统计手册》第四版，大量饮酒、社会后果、依赖症状)，则被归类为“问题饮酒者”。结果：虽然观察到了所有可能的模式，但具有异质转变和五种模式的潜在马尔可夫模型符合数据。抽样框和基线酒精严重程度与模式相关。结论：数据表明，尽管问题饮酒者确实会随着时间的推移而改变，但总的来说，问题饮酒者要么仍然是问题饮酒者，要么不再是问题饮酒者，而不是进入和退出问题饮酒状态。一旦他们戒除了问题饮酒，他们更有可能仍然是没有问题的饮酒者。(J.Stud.酒精类毒品，71,210-218,2010)
Objective: The extent to which problem drinkers transition into and out of problem drinking was examined using Markov modeling. Method: Study participants (N = 1,350) were randomly sampled from one county's general population and from consecutive admissions to public and private alcohol treatment programs in the same county, and they were assessed at 1-, 3-, 5-, and 7-year follow-ups. At baseline, all met the criteria for problem drinking. Individuals were classified as "problem drinkers" if they reported at least two of three criteria (heavy episodic drinking, social consequences, dependence symptoms according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition) during the prior 12 months. Results: Although all possible patterns were observed, a latent Markov model with heterogeneous transitions and five patterns fit the data. The sampling frame and baseline alcohol severity related to pattern. Conclusions: The data indicate that, although they do change over time, problem drinkers on the whole are more likely either to remain problem drinkers or to cease to be problem drinkers than they are to move into and out of problem-drinking status. Once they transition out of problem drinking, they are more likely to remain nonproblem drinkers. (J. Stud. Alcohol Drugs, 71, 210-218, 2010)