On the Accuracy of Deriving Climate Feedback Parameters from Correlations between Surface Temperatur
On the Accuracy of Deriving Climate Feedback Parameters from Correlations between Surface Temperatur
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论从地表温度相关性推导气候反馈参数的准确性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Forster
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Murphy;P. Forster
向外辐射的变化既是地球温度变化的结果，也是其原因。斯宾塞和布拉斯韦尔最近表明，在一个简单的地球箱形模型中，向外辐射对地表温度的回归给出了一个与模型真实反馈参数不同的斜率。他们继续根据观测结果为箱形模型选择输入参数，计算这些条件下的差异，并断言气候研究存在明显的偏差。这篇论文表明Spencer和Braswell高估了这种差异。当1)使用更真实的海洋混合层深度值，2)使用修正后的辐射标准偏差，以及3)在与观测值相同的时间间隔内计算模式温度变率时，回归斜率与真实反馈参数之间的差异显著减小。当这三种变化都发生时，斜率和反馈参数之间的差值…
Abstract Changes in outgoing radiation are both a consequence and a cause of changes in the earth’s temperature. Spencer and Braswell recently showed that in a simple box model for the earth the regression of outgoing radiation against surface temperature gave a slope that differed from the model’s true feedback parameter. They went on to select input parameters for the box model based on observations, computed the difference for those conditions, and asserted that there is a significant bias for climate studies. This paper shows that Spencer and Braswell overestimated the difference. Differences between the regression slope and the true feedback parameter are significantly reduced when 1) a more realistic value for the ocean mixed layer depth is used, 2) a corrected standard deviation of outgoing radiation is used, and 3) the model temperature variability is computed over the same time interval as the observations. When all three changes are made, the difference between the slope and feedback parameter i...