Analyzing impact factors of CO2 emissions using the STIRPAT model
Analyzing impact factors of CO2 emissions using the STIRPAT model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eiar.2005.11.007
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发表时间：
2006-05-01
影响因子：
7.9
通讯作者：
Wei, YM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fan, Y;Liu, LC;Wei, YM
本文采用STIRPAT模型，分析了1975-2000年不同收入水平国家的人口、富裕程度和技术对二氧化碳排放总量的影响。我们的主要结果表明，在全球层面上，经济增长对二氧化碳排放的影响最大，而15至64岁人口比例的影响最小。15至64岁人口比例对高收入国家的二氧化碳总排放量有负向影响，但对其他收入水平的影响是正向的。这可能说明了“I=PABT”中“B”的重要性，也就是说，不同的行为模式可以极大地影响环境变化。对于低收入国家，人均GDP对二氧化碳排放总量的影响非常大，中高收入国家的能源强度影响非常大。这些因素对高收入国家二氧化碳排放总量的影响比较大。因此，这些实证结果表明，人口、富裕程度和技术对二氧化碳排放的影响在不同的发展水平上是不同的。因此，政策制定者在制定二氧化碳减排的长期战略时应充分考虑这些问题。(c) 2006爱思唯尔公司版权所有。
Using the STIRPAT model, this paper analyzes the impact of population, affluence and technology on the total CO2 emissions of countries at different income levels over the period 1975-2000. Our main results show at the global level that economic growth has the greatest impact on CO, emissions, and the proportion of the population between ages 15 and 64 has the least impact. The proportion of the population between 15 and 64 has a negative impact on the total CO2 emissions of countries at the high income level, but the impact is positive at other income levels. This may illustrate the importance of the '' B '' in the '' I=PABT '', that is to say that different behavior fashions can greatly influence environmental change. For low-income countries, the impact of GDP per capita on total CO2 emissions is very great, and the impact of energy intensity in upper-middle income countries is very great. The impact of these factors on the total CO2 emissions of countries at the high income level is relatively great. Therefore, these empirical results indicate that the impact of population, affluence and technology on CO2 emissions varies at different levels of development. Thus, policy-makers should consider these matters fully when they construct their long-term strategies for CO2 abatement. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.