The impact of residential combustion emissions on atmospheric aerosol, human health, and climate
The impact of residential combustion emissions on atmospheric aerosol, human health, and climate
复制标题
住宅燃烧排放对大气气溶胶、人类健康和气候的影响
DOI：
10.5194/acp-16-873-2016
复制
发表时间：
2016-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Spracklen, D. V.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Butt, E. W.;Rap, A.;Spracklen, D. V.
抽象的。住宅部门用于烹饪和取暖的燃料燃烧会产生影响空气质量、人体健康和气候的气溶胶和气溶胶前体的排放。居民排放的主要是固体燃料的燃烧。我们使用全球气溶胶微物理模式模拟了2000年居民燃料燃烧对大气气溶胶的影响。该模型低估了在亚洲、东欧和非洲观察到的黑碳(BC)和有机碳(OC)质量浓度，当居民部门的碳质排放量增加一倍时，该模型具有更好的预测能力。当居民排放包含季节周期时，可以更好地模拟观测到的BC和OC浓度的季节变化。对东亚、南亚和东欧的居民排放对年地表平均颗粒物(PM2.5)浓度的最大贡献进行了模拟。我们使用浓度响应函数来估计居民排放的环境PM2.5长期暴露对人类健康的影响。我们估计，对于每月变化的住宅排放，全球每年超过30岁的成人(>； 30岁)过早死亡率(由于心肺疾病和肺癌)为308 000(113 300-497 000，第5至95百分位不确定范围)，当住宅碳排放翻一番时，为517 000(192 000-827 000)。居民排放造成的死亡率在亚洲最高，中国和印度占模拟全球超额死亡率的50 %。利用离线辐射传输模式，我们估计了居民排放在−66和+21 MW m−2之间产生的全球年平均直接辐射效应，对居民排放通量和假定的BC、OC和SO2排放的比率很敏感。居民排放对全球年平均第一气溶胶的间接影响介于−52和−16 m−2之间，这对碳质排放的假设尺寸分布很敏感。总体而言，我们的结果表明，通过降低环境中PM2.5的浓度，减少住宅燃烧排放将对人类健康产生重大好处。
Abstract. Combustion of fuels in the residential sector for cooking and heating results in the emission of aerosol and aerosol precursors impacting air quality, human health, and climate. Residential emissions are dominated by the combustion of solid fuels. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to simulate the impact of residential fuel combustion on atmospheric aerosol for the year 2000. The model underestimates black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) mass concentrations observed over Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa, with better prediction when carbonaceous emissions from the residential sector are doubled. Observed seasonal variability of BC and OC concentrations are better simulated when residential emissions include a seasonal cycle. The largest contributions of residential emissions to annual surface mean particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations are simulated for East Asia, South Asia, and Eastern Europe. We use a concentration response function to estimate the human health impact due to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 from residential emissions. We estimate global annual excess adult (> 30 years of age) premature mortality (due to both cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer) to be 308 000 (113 300–497 000, 5th to 95th percentile uncertainty range) for monthly varying residential emissions and 517 000 (192 000–827 000) when residential carbonaceous emissions are doubled. Mortality due to residential emissions is greatest in Asia, with China and India accounting for 50 % of simulated global excess mortality. Using an offline radiative transfer model we estimate that residential emissions exert a global annual mean direct radiative effect between −66 and +21 mW m−2, with sensitivity to the residential emission flux and the assumed ratio of BC, OC, and SO2 emissions. Residential emissions exert a global annual mean first aerosol indirect effect of between −52 and −16 mW m−2, which is sensitive to the assumed size distribution of carbonaceous emissions. Overall, our results demonstrate that reducing residential combustion emissions would have substantial benefits for human health through reductions in ambient PM2.5 concentrations.