The 1859 space weather event revisited: limits of extreme activity
The 1859 space weather event revisited: limits of extreme activity
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DOI：
10.1051/swsc/2013053
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Dietrich, William F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cliver, Edward W.;Dietrich, William F.
1859年9月1日的太阳耀斑及其相关的地磁风暴仍然是极端日地事件的标准。最近对这次耀斑软x射线（SXR）峰值强度和Dst磁暴指数的估计是：SXR等级= X45(+/- 5)（相对于2003年11月4日的X35(+/- 5)）和最小Dst = -900 (+50, -150) nT（相对于1921年5月大风暴的-825至-900 nT）。我们没有相关的太阳高能质子（SEP）事件的直接证据，但根据现代数据，bbb30 MeV SEP通量（F-30）与耀斑大小之间的相关性产生了一个最佳猜测，即1859年复合（多重耀斑加激波）事件的F-30值类似于1.1 x 10(10) pr cm(-2) (+/- 1 sigma不确定性范围从类似于10(9)-10（11)pr cm(-2)）。这个值大约是现代最大SEP事件（1959年7月，1960年11月，1972年8月）的估计值/测量值的两倍，范围从类似的5-7 x 10(9) pr cm（-2）。
The solar flare on 1 September 1859 and its associated geomagnetic storm remain the standard for an extreme solar-terrestrial event. The most recent estimates of the flare soft X-ray (SXR) peak intensity and Dst magnetic storm index for this event are: SXR class = X45 (+/- 5) (vs. X35 (+/- 5) for the 4 November 2003 flare) and minimum Dst = -900 (+50, -150) nT (vs. -825 to -900 nT for the great storm of May 1921). We have no direct evidence of an associated solar energetic proton (SEP) event but a correlation between >30 MeV SEP fluence (F-30) and flare size based on modern data yields a best guess F-30 value of similar to 1.1 x 10(10) pr cm(-2) (with the +/- 1 sigma uncertainty spanning a range from similar to 10(9)-10(11) pr cm(-2)) for a composite (multi-flare plus shock) 1859 event. This value is approximately twice that of estimates/measurements - ranging from similar to 5-7 x 10(9) pr cm(-2) - for the largest SEP episodes (July 1959, November 1960, August 1972) in the modern era.