Cross-scale interactions among bark beetles, climate change, and wind disturbances: a landscape modeling approach
Cross-scale interactions among bark beetles, climate change, and wind disturbances: a landscape modeling approach
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DOI：
10.1890/12-1503.1
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发表时间：
2013-08-01
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Elkin, Che
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Temperli, Christian;Bugmann, Harald;Elkin, Che
树皮甲虫是世界范围内一种主要的森林干扰因子，其影响取决于气候、森林易感性以及与其他干扰（如风吹和火灾）的相互作用。有大量证据表明，这些因素在小的空间和时间尺度上相互作用，但预测其长期和大规模的影响仍然是一个挑战。我们开发了一个空间上明确的模型，欧洲云杉树皮甲虫（Ips typographus）的动态，结合甲虫物候和森林的敏感性，并将其集成在一个气候敏感的景观模型（LandClim）。我们首先在不同的空间和时间尺度上证实了模型的输出，然后将模型应用于三个案例研究（在黑森林，德国和达沃斯，瑞士），涵盖了扩展的气候梯度。我们使用这个模型和案例研究框架来研究推动甲虫干扰、气候变化和风吹之间短期和长期相互作用的机制和反馈，以及它们在未来可能如何变化。在目前挪威云杉分布的冷湿端，气候变化预计将增加温度和干旱，从而使甲虫成为更主要的干扰因素。在温暖干燥端的云杉分布，在目前的气候条件下，甲虫爆发仅限于同时发生的干旱和风蚀，模拟的干旱水平足以触发甲虫爆发，这样的干旱和甲虫引起的云杉死亡率升高将负反馈甲虫干扰在长期。这将导致甲虫数量的减少，因为挪威云杉在当地灭绝。这些结果表明，根据初始环境条件，气候变化可能会改变干扰的直接和间接驱动因素的重要性。这些变化可能会影响跨尺度干扰相互作用的迹象和强度，并可能影响甲虫抑制和预防性管理策略之间的成本效益权衡。
Bark beetles are a key forest disturbance agent worldwide, with their impact shaped by climate, forest susceptibility, and interactions with other disturbances such as windthrow and fire. There is ample evidence of the interactions among these factors at small spatial and temporal scales, but projecting their long-term and landscape-scale impacts remains a challenge. We developed a spatially explicit model of European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) dynamics that incorporates beetle phenology and forest susceptibility and integrated it in a climate-sensitive landscape model (LandClim). We first corroborated model outputs at various spatial and temporal scales and then applied the model in three case studies (in the Black Forest, Germany, and Davos, Switzerland) that cover an extended climatic gradient. We used this model and case study framework to examine the mechanisms and feedbacks that are driving short-term and long-term interactions among beetle disturbance, climate change, and windthrow, and how they may shift in the future. At the current cold-wet end of the Norway spruce (Picea abies) distribution, climate change is projected to increase temperature and drought, such that beetles become a more dominant disturbance agent. At the warm-dry end of the spruce distribution, where, under current climate, beetle outbreaks are confined to the simultaneous occurrence of drought and windthrow, the simulated level of drought alone sufficed for triggering beetle outbreaks, such that elevated drought- and beetle-induced spruce mortality would negatively feed back on beetle disturbance in the long term. This would lead to receding beetle populations due to the local extinction of Norway spruce. These results suggest that, depending on initial environmental conditions, climate change may shift the importance of direct and indirect drivers of disturbances. These shifts may affect the sign and strength of cross-scale disturbance interactions and may impact the cost-benefit trade-off between beetle suppression and preventive management strategies.