Sociodynamic modeling of small-scale PV adoption and insights on future expansion without feed-in tariffs
Sociodynamic modeling of small-scale PV adoption and insights on future expansion without feed-in tariffs
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.029
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发表时间：
2019-02
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
S. Candas;K. Siala;T. Hamacher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Candas;K. Siala;T. Hamacher
理解能源转型等复杂现象，涉及技术、经济和社会层面，需要采取多方向的办法。太阳能在一个国家的能源结构中的扩张同样复杂，因为其分散的性质除了经济性之外还需要公众的认可和信任。因此，我们开发了一个综合的社会经济模型，这是基于社会动力学框架，家庭层面采用的光伏。我们将该模型应用于德国和意大利光伏扩张的案例，并对其动态进行回顾性分析，以确定各种因素的重要性，如盈利能力和公众舆论在整个扩张时间轴。然后，我们将我们的模型用于德国光伏扩张到不久的将来，并研究在各种情况下维持扩张目标的上网电价要求。我们的预测结果指出了光伏电力自我消费的重要性;平均自我消费率高于25%，使得到2030年逐步取消上网电价成为可能，而50%的自我消费即使在今天的经济条件下也会使上网电价法规过时。
Understanding complex phenomena such as energy transitions, which bear technical, economic and social dimensions, requires a multi-directional approach. Expansion of the solar energy in the energy mix of a country is similarly complex, as its decentralized nature brings about a necessity of public approval and trust besides its economics. We therefore develop a combined socio-economic model, which is based on the sociodynamics framework, for the household-level adoption of photovoltaics (PV). We apply the model to the cases of German and Italian PV expansion and make a retrospective analysis regarding their dynamics, in order to identify the importance of various factors such as the profitability and the public opinion throughout their expansion timeline. We then project our model for the German PV expansion onto the near future and investigate the requirement of feed-in tariffs to maintain the expansion targets under various scenarios. Results of our projection point at the importance of the self-consumption of PV electricity; an average self-consumption ratio higher than 25% makes a phase-out of feed-in tariffs by 2030 possible, whereas 50% self consumption renders the feed-in tariff regulation obsolete even in today's economic conditions.