The Demand for Cigarettes: Advertising, the Health Scare, and the Cigarette Advertising Ban
The Demand for Cigarettes: Advertising, the Health Scare, and the Cigarette Advertising Ban
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香烟的需求：广告、健康恐慌和香烟广告禁令
DOI：
10.2307/1924567
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发表时间：
1972
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
James L. Hamilton
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
James L. Hamilton
在本文中，我估计了美国卷烟消费量受到卷烟广告和吸烟健康恐慌的影响。 1953-1970年间，健康恐慌对香烟消费的抑制作用远大于香烟广告对香烟消费的促进作用。第一节介绍了卷烟需求函数的计量经济学估计，并结合了多重共线性的计量经济学修正。第二部分评估了广告和健康恐慌的比较影响。根据这些结果，第三节评估了最近国会禁止广播香烟广告是否会通过减少香烟消费来促进公共健康。尽管广告需求弹性为正，但相当小。然而更重要的是，该禁令还取消了以健康为导向的反吸烟广告，联邦通信委员会强迫广播公司按照卷烟广告的比例播放这些广告。 Since the health scare has been the relatively stronger influence, the net effect of the ban may be to increase consumption, not decrease it.禁令倡导者忽视了香烟和反吸烟广告之间的相互联系；美国卷烟制造商显然对这种互连并不感到困惑。最后，第四节指出了该禁令可能产生的反竞争影响。
IN this paper I have esitimated the amount United States cigarette consumption has been affected by cigarette advertising and by the health scare over smoking. During 19531970 the health scare depressed cigarette consumption considerably more than cigarette advertising boosted it. Section I presents econometric estimations of the demand function for cigarettes, incorporating econometric corrections for multicollinearity. Section II gauges the comparative effects of advertising and the health scare. On these results, section III evaluates whether the recent Congressional ban of broadcast advertising of cigarettes will promote public health by reducing cigarette consumption. Although the advertising elasticity of demand was positive, it was quite small. More importantly, however, the ban also eliminated the health-scare-oriented antismoking commercials, which the Federal Communications Commission had forced broadcasters to air in proportion to cigarette commercials. Since the health scare has been the relatively stronger influence, the net effect of the ban may be to increase consumption, not decrease it. Ban advocates disregarded the interconnection of cigarette and antismoking commercials; the United States cigarette manufacturers apparently were not confused about the interconnection. Finally, the probable anti-competitive effects of the ban are noted in section IV.