Nomograms to estimate long-term overall survival and tongue cancer-specific survival of patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma.
Nomograms to estimate long-term overall survival and tongue cancer-specific survival of patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma.
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DOI：
10.1002/cam4.1021
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发表时间：
2017-05
期刊：
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Sun M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li Y;Zhao Z;Liu X;Ju J;Chai J;Ni Q;Ma C;Gao T;Sun M
本研究的目的是建立基于临床和肿瘤特征的舌鳞状细胞癌（TSCC）患者的长期总生存期（OS）和舌癌特异性生存期（TCSS）的形态图。从监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库中收集了2004年至2013年间诊断为TSCC的12,674例患者的临床、肿瘤和治疗特征。然后将这些患者分为手术组和非手术组，并为每组制定nomogram。采用逐步下降法和累积发生率函数进行模型选择，以确定与OS和TCSS相关的重要预后因素。这些预后变量被纳入图中。采用外部队列来验证手术图。使用7个变量创建OS和TCSS的手术图，其c指数分别为0.709和0.728；对于外部验证队列，c‐指数分别为0.691和0.711。使用9个变量创建OS和TCSS的非手术nomogram，其c指数分别为0.750和0.754。5年和8年手术和非手术nomogram校正曲线显示概率和观测值之间的一致性。通过结合患者的临床病理和宿主特征，我们率先建立了准确预测TSCC个体患者预后的形态图。这些图应该提供更个性化和可靠的预后信息，并改善TSCC患者的临床决策。
The aim of this study was to construct nomograms to predict long‐term overall survival (OS) and tongue cancer‐specific survival (TCSS) of tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC) patients based on clinical and tumor characteristics. Clinical, tumor, and treatment characteristics of 12,674 patients diagnosed with TSCC between 2004 and 2013 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. These patients were then divided into surgery and nonsurgery cohorts, and nomograms were developed for each of these groups. The step‐down method and cumulative incidence function were used for model selection to determine the significant prognostic factors associated with OS and TCSS. These prognostic variables were incorporated into nomograms. An external cohort was used to validate the surgery nomograms. Seven variables were used to create the surgery nomograms for OS and TCSS, which had c‐indexes of 0.709 and 0.728, respectively; for the external validation cohort, the c‐indexes were 0.691 and 0.711, respectively. Nine variables were used to create the nonsurgery nomograms for OS and TCSS, which had c‐indexes of 0.750 and 0.754, respectively. The calibration curves of the 5‐ and 8‐year surgery and nonsurgery nomograms showed excellent agreement between the probabilities and observed values. By incorporating clinicopathological and host characteristics in patients, we are the first to establish nomograms that accurately predict prognosis for individual patients with TSCC. These nomograms ought to provide more personalized and reliable prognostic information, and improve clinical decision‐making for TSCC patients.