Prevalence of a History of Skin Cancer in 2007 Results of an Incidence-Based Model
Prevalence of a History of Skin Cancer in 2007 Results of an Incidence-Based Model
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DOI：
10.1001/archdermatol.2010.4
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发表时间：
2010-03-10
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Stern, Robert S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Stern, Robert S.
目的：估计2007年的人患病率的常见类型的非黑色素瘤皮肤癌（NMSC），基底细胞癌（BCC）和鳞状细胞癌（SCC），或两者兼而有之，在美国使用基于发病率的数学模型，并比较皮肤癌的患病率与其他常见cancers.Design：我开发了一个数学模型，以估计NMSC在美国的患病率在2007年。该模型使用了年龄特异性发病率数据，这些数据经过调整以反映1957年至2006年的发病率变化、1957年至2006年人口的年龄分布以及该人首次发生肿瘤的可能性。我进行了敏感性分析，改变了我对发病率随时间变化的假设，以及个体首次发生NMSC的肿瘤比例。我使用标准方法分析调查数据，计算报告所选癌症病史的人数，并发表监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）估计，以估计NMSC以外癌症的患病率。设置：2007年国家健康访谈调查（NHIS）数据，国家癌症研究所皮肤癌发病率数据（1977-1978），和SEER数据。主要结果测量：NMSC和黑色素瘤患病率的基于发病率的估计，以及皮肤病史和选定的其他癌症的患者报告。2007年初，大约有1300万白色非西班牙裔美国人至少有I NMSC。大约五分之一的七十奥尔兹的人有NMSC，大多数受影响的人有多个NMSC。在2007年NHIS的估计，只有500万人报告皮肤癌的历史，不到一半的发病率和生存data.Conclusions估计的数字：我的发病率为基础的模型表明，皮肤癌的患病率的历史是约5倍，乳腺癌或前列腺癌，大于31年的患病率的所有其他癌症的总和。尽管BSC和SCC的发生率很高，但基于人群的发病率和负担数据在很大程度上缺乏。
Objectives: To estimate the 2007 person prevalence of common types of nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC), basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), or both, in the United States using an incidence-based mathematical model; and to compare the prevalence of skin cancer with that of other common cancers.Design: I developed a mathematical model to estimate the prevalence of NMSC in the United States in 2007. This model used age-specific incidence data adjusted to reflect changes in incidence from 1957 to 2006, the age distribution of the population from 1957 to 2006, and the likelihood that an incident tumor was the first ever for that person. I performed sensitivity analyses that varied my assumption about change in incidence over time and proportion of incident tumors that were a first-ever NMSC for an individual. I used standard methods for analysis of survey data to calculate the number of persons who report a history of the selected cancers and published Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) estimates for incidence-based estimates for prevalence of cancers other than NMSC.Setting: National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 2007 data, National Cancer Institute Skin Cancer Incidence data (1977-1978), and SEER data.Main Outcome Measure: Incidence-based estimate of prevalence of NMSC and melanoma and patient reports of a history of skin and selected other cancers.Results: Approximately 13 million white non-Hispanics living in the United States at the beginning of 2007 have had at least I NMSC. About I in 5 seventy-year-olds have had NMSCs, and most of those affected have had multiple NMSCs. In the 2007 NHIS estimates, only 5 million persons report a history of skin cancer, less than half the number estimated based on incidence and survival data.Conclusions: My incidence-based model indicates that the prevalence of a skin cancer history is about 5 times higher than that of breast or prostate cancer and greater than the 31-year prevalence of all other cancers combined. Despite their high frequency, population-based incidence and burden data for BSC and SCC are largely lacking.