Maize Production Responsiveness to Land Use Change and Climate Trends in Cameroon
Maize Production Responsiveness to Land Use Change and Climate Trends in Cameroon
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DOI：
10.3390/su7010384
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Bryant, Christopher Robin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Epule, Terence Epule;Bryant, Christopher Robin
大多数关于玉米生产对各种变量的响应的研究都集中在玉米生产对降水或温度变化的响应上。这项研究试图验证喀麦隆玉米生产对气候趋势和土地利用变化的反应。因此，我们的研究首次提出了气候和土地利用变化对喀麦隆玉米生产的相对影响。本分析中使用的数据基本上是1961-2006年期间的时间序列数据。玉米产量、玉米收获面积和玉米种子播种量的数据来自(http://faostat.fao.org).玉米生长季节平均温度和降水数据是从环境署和牛津大学地理与环境学院的0.5度×0.5度网格协作数据集以及全球作物日历数据集中收集的。使用平均变化率、去趋势模拟、多元线性回归技术、相关系数和决定系数对数据进行了分析。结果表明，喀麦隆的玉米产量更有可能对土地利用变化(森林面积变化)做出反应，而不是降雨和温度。然而，就气候变量而言，玉米产量对温度变化的响应比对降水的响应更大。换句话说，土地利用变化(森林面积损失)越大，当前玉米产量收益的长期损失就越有可能，而气温上升被发现更适合玉米生产。尽管1990年代是萨赫勒大部分地区降雨量恢复的时期，但仍出现了较大的波动。
Most studies on the responsiveness of maize production to various variables have dwelled on the responsiveness of maize production to variations in precipitation or temperature. This study seeks to verify the response of maize production in Cameroon to both climate trends and land use change. Therefore, for the first time, our study presents findings on the relative influence of both climate and land use change on maize production in Cameroon. The data used in this analysis are essentially time series data spanning the period 1961-2006. The data on quantity of maize produced, area of maize harvested and number of maize seeds planted was taken from (http://faostat.fao.org). The mean maize growing season temperature and precipitation data were collected from the 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees gridded collaborative datasets of the UNEP and the School of Geography and Environment at Oxford University and from the global crop calendar dataset. The data were analyzed using the average rate of change, detrended simulations, the multiple linear regression technique, correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination. The results show that maize production in Cameroon is more likely responsive to land use change (forest area change) than rainfall and temperature. However, for the climatic variables, maize production is more responsive to temperature variations than precipitation. In other words, the greater the land use change (forest area loss) the more likely the long run losses in the current maize production gains while rising temperatures were found to be more suitable for maize production. Even though the 1990s marked the period of recovering rainfall levels in most of the Sahel, large fluctuations were still recorded.