The use of deterministic and probabilistic forecasting in countrywide flood guidance in Scotland
The use of deterministic and probabilistic forecasting in countrywide flood guidance in Scotland
复制标题
确定性和概率预报在苏格兰全国洪水指导中的应用
DOI：
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
P. Buchanan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Maxey;M. Cranston;A. Tavendale;P. Buchanan
近年来，苏格兰的洪水预报有了显著的发展。在流域尺度上预测洪水的水文模型的发展依赖于降雨径流模型的应用，该模型使用雨量计、雷达和短提前时间（不到6小时）的定量降水预报。在向应急人员通报洪水风险时，基于不确定降雨预测的单一确定性预报造成了最大的业务困难，因此，基于概率的估计的出现为管理不确定预测提供了最大的机会。苏格兰环境保护局（SEPA）和英国气象局（Met Office）于2011年3月成立了苏格兰洪水预报服务（SFFS）合作项目，推动了这些新技术在苏格兰的发展和实施，用于全国范围的洪水指导。本文介绍了在苏格兰全国范围内物理概念分布式水文模型的操作应用。由CEH Wallingford为洪水预报中心开发的英格兰和威尔士预报模型，随后在2011年为SEPA开发，网格到网格主要以确定性模式运行，并使用雷达和降雨量估计以及天气模型预测来预测河流流量，以1公里分辨率的网格时间序列，最多可提前5天。网格到网格模型还使用MOGREPS-R系统的24个降雨集合预测来提供概率洪水预报。以2012年1月的一次大流量事件为例进行了分析。确定性和概率预测与操作阈值和实际测量流量进行比较。预报使水文学家能够对洪水影响的可能性作出客观的衡量。在全国范围内提出这样的洪水预测，伴随着气象预测的进一步改进，应该有助于基于风险的应急通信，从而在实践中为苏格兰洪水预报提供重大好处。
Flood forecasting in Scotland has developed significantly in recent years. The development of hydrological models to predict flooding at a catchment scale has relied upon the application of rainfall runoff models using raingauge, radar and quantitative precipitation forecasts in the short lead time (less than 6 hours). Single deterministic forecasts based on uncertain rainfall predictions have led to the greatest operational difficulties when communicating flood risk with emergency responders, therefore the emergence of probability-based estimates offers the greatest opportunity for managing uncertain predictions. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service (SFFS) partnership between Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) and the Met Office, launched in March 2011, is driving development and operational implementation of these new techniques in Scotland for countrywide flood guidance. This paper presents operational application of a physical-conceptual distributed hydrological model on a countrywide basis across Scotland. Developed as a forecasting model for England and Wales by CEH Wallingford for the Flood Forecasting Centre and then subsequently in 2011 for SEPA, Grid-to-Grid principally runs in deterministic mode and employs radar and raingauge estimates of rainfall together with weather model predictions to produce forecast river flows, as gridded time-series at a resolution of 1 km and for up to five days ahead. The Grid-to-Grid model is also run operationally using 24 ensemble predictions of rainfall from the MOGREPS-R system to provide probabilistic flood forecasts. A case study for a high flow event in January 2012 is presented. Deterministic and probablistic forecasts are compared with operational thresholds and actual gauged flows. The forecasts enable the hydrologist to make an objective measure of the likelihood of flooding impacts. The presentation of such flood predictions on a national scale, accompanied by further upcoming improvements in meteorological predictions, should help with risk based emergency communication and thus offer a significant benefit to Scottish flood forecasting in practice.
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Bell, V. A.;Kay, A. L.;Reynard, N. S.
通讯作者：
Reynard, N. S.