Modelling transport emissions in an uncertain future: What actions make a difference?
Modelling transport emissions in an uncertain future: What actions make a difference?
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DOI：
10.1016/j.trd.2020.102614
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发表时间：
2020-12-01
影响因子：
7.6
通讯作者：
Cullen, Jonathan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Craglia, Matteo;Cullen, Jonathan
可以采取一系列技术和政策行动来减少乘用车的碳排放，本文旨在根据其可能的影响和不确定性对它们进行优先排序。首次使用正式的敏感性分析技术来确定影响英国乘用车未来排放的因素的相对重要性。限制未来生命周期二氧化碳排放的两项最重要的行动包括转向电动汽车和限制更大、更强大的车辆的趋势。根据我们的分析，未来累积二氧化碳排放量的不确定性超过 80% 可归因于电动汽车的普及以及车辆尺寸和功率的不确定性。这些变量是交通政策制定者的优先考虑事项。该分析还强调了重要性相对较低的变量；其中包括混合动力电动汽车的份额、反弹效应和插电式混合动力汽车的利用率。
A range of technology and policy actions can be put in place to reduce carbon emissions from passenger cars, this paper aims to prioritise between them, based on their likely impact and uncertainty. Formal sensitivity analysis techniques are used for the first time to determine the relative importance of factors affecting future emissions from passenger vehicles in Great Britain.The two most important actions to limit future life-cycle CO2 emissions involve shifting to electric vehicles and limiting trends towards larger and more powerful vehicles. According to our analysis over 80% of the uncertainty in future cumulative CO2 emissions can be attributed to uncertainty in electric vehicle uptake and vehicle size and power. These variables are a priority for transport policy makers. The analysis also highlights variables of comparatively low importance; these include the share of hybrid electric vehicles, the Rebound Effect and the utilisation factor of PHEVs.