Political pressures increased vulnerability to climate changes for nomadic livestock in Inner Mongolia, China
Political pressures increased vulnerability to climate changes for nomadic livestock in Inner Mongolia, China
复制标题
政治压力增加了中国内蒙古游牧牲畜对气候变化的脆弱性
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-017-08686-4
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jianhui Huang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ang Li;Shi Chen;Xueyao Zhang;Jianhui Huang
1961年至1986年，内蒙古牧民在最后的游牧时期经历了两个完全不同的政治时期。但根据统计分析，这两个时期的气候和技术因素却非常相似。我们检索了历史气候和牲畜数量数据，并使用广义相加模型进行了回顾性研究，分析了这两个时期之间三个主要牲畜数量人口统计指标的变化。我们发现，社会政治因素对两个时期之间的大型牲畜（牛、马和骆驼）和小型牲畜（绵羊和山羊）的所有三个主要人口指标（成人死亡率、新生儿死亡率和出生率）产生了显着影响。我们还确定了社会政治因素和气候因素之间的相互作用对成人和新生儿死亡率的影响，而出生率不受这些相互作用的影响。当暴露于气候灾害时，社会运动时期的成年和新生牲畜死亡率显着高于和平时期，而出生率显着低于和平时期。我们的结论是，政治运动确实增加了牧民牲畜对气候灾害的脆弱性。外部政治压力剥夺了牧民的抗灾权利，这也许可以解释政治压力对牲畜脆弱性影响更大的原因。
Herders in Inner Mongolia experienced two completely different political periods during their last nomadic period between 1961 and 1986. However, climate and technical factors were very similar between these two periods according to statistical analyses. We retrieved historical climate and livestock population data and performed a retrospective study using generalized additive models to analyze three major livestock population demographic metrics changes between these two periods. We found that the sociopolitical factors significantly impacted all three major demographic metrics (adult mortality, neonatal mortality and birthrate) between the two periods for both large (cattle, horse, and camel) and small livestock (sheep and goat). We also identified the interaction effects between sociopolitical factor and climate factors for adult and neonatal mortality, while birthrate was not affected by these interactions. When exposed to climate hazards, adult and neonatal livestock mortality rates were significantly higher, while birthrate was significantly lower in social movement period than in peaceful period. We concluded that political movements had indeed increased the vulnerability of herders’ livestock to climate hazards. External political pressures deprived hazard-resistance entitlements of herders, which may explain the elevated effects of political pressures on livestock vulnerability.