Systemically modeling the relationship between climate change and wheat aphid abundance.
Systemically modeling the relationship between climate change and wheat aphid abundance.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.143
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发表时间：
2019-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Kai Zhang;Qiong Pan;Deying Yu;Liming Wang;Zhenzhen Liu;Xue Li;Xiyang Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kai Zhang;Qiong Pan;Deying Yu;Liming Wang;Zhenzhen Liu;Xue Li;Xiyang Liu
气候变化影响着所有的生物。小麦蚜虫消耗小麦的营养价值，影响气候变化下小麦的产量。本研究通过模拟气候与小麦蚜虫丰度的关系，试图解释气候变化对小麦蚜虫影响的生态机制，这不仅有助于提高小麦蚜虫的预测和防治效果，而且有助于缓解粮食危机。模糊认知图（FCM）是描述复杂系统的有效工具。利用中国地区的气候数据，利用差分进化（DE）算法构建了气候对小麦蚜虫丰度影响的FCM模型。建立了小麦蚜不同生长阶段（1 - 3龄、4龄有翅、4龄无翅、有翅成虫、无翅成虫）与气候的关系。FCM模型分析结果表明，温度对小麦蚜虫的正向影响最大。此外，这些模型还可以定量地确定各气候因子的数值和小麦蚜虫的丰度。建立了气候与小麦蚜虫整体关系模型，结果表明天敌和最高日温度对小麦蚜虫的影响最大。天敌和最高日温度对小麦蚜虫的影响分别为负向和正向。小麦蚜虫各生育期之间存在一定的相互关系，气候因子之间也存在一定的内在联系。
Climate change influences all living beings. Wheat aphids deplete the nutritional value of wheat and affect the production of wheat in changing climate. In this study, we attempt to explain the ecological mechanisms of how climate change affects wheat aphids by simulating the relationship between climate and the abundance of wheat aphids, which will not only aid in improving wheat aphid forecasting and the effectiveness of prevention and treatment, but also help mitigate food crises. Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) are an effective tool for portraying complex systems. UsingSitobion avenaeand climatological data collected in China, we made use of differential evolution (DE) algorithms to construct FCM models that directly illustrate the effect of climate on wheat aphid abundance. The relationships among climate and wheat aphids at different growth stages (I–III instar larvae, IV instar larvae with wings, IV instar larvae without wings, adult with wings, adult without wings) were established. The analysis results from the FCM models show that temperature positively influences wheat aphids most. Moreover, these models can be used to determine the numerical value of each climate factor and the abundance of wheat aphids quantitatively. Furthermore, the two overall relationship models between climate and wheat aphids were constructed and the experimental results show that natural enemies and highest daily temperature affect wheat aphids most. Natural enemies and highest daily temperature exert negative and positive impacts on wheat aphids respectively. Some interrelationships among wheat aphids at all growth stages and the internal relationships among climate factors were also shown.