The nature of uncertainty
The nature of uncertainty
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DOI：
10.4324/9781849773607
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Smithson;R. Attewell;Stephen Buckman;Ann Curthoys;Kate Delaney;Stephen Dovers;Liz. Furler;Alexander Grishin;J. Handmer;Steve Longford;John Mackey;Judith S Jones;Michael Moore;Michael McFadden;Paul Perkins;Pascal Perez;Stephen Pickard;A. Plant;J. Quiggin;Alison Ritter;Ian White;G. Bammer
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. Smithson;R. Attewell;Stephen Buckman;Ann Curthoys;Kate Delaney;Stephen Dovers;Liz. Furler;Alexander Grishin;J. Handmer;Steve Longford;John Mackey;Judith S Jones;Michael Moore;Michael McFadden;Paul Perkins;Pascal Perez;Stephen Pickard;A. Plant;J. Quiggin;Alison Ritter;Ian White;G. Bammer
序言 * 第一部分：背景 * 介绍 * 不确定性的许多面孔和面具 * 收养孤儿：不确定性和复杂问题的其他被忽视的方面 * 第二部分：好奇心的内阁：对不确定性的学科和实践观点 * 当行动不能等待：调查传染病爆发 * 不确定性和宗教：十个临时论文 * 物理科学中的不确定性：有多大？有多小？它真的存在吗？* 统计信息：模范公民的基本工具 * 哲学家的概率指南 * 音乐即兴，创造力和不确定性 * 不确定性作为视觉艺术的创造力 * 历史学家和不确定性的争议 * 不确定性的未来方法 * 用复杂系统科学拥抱社会不确定性 * 海洛因：注入不确定性 * 政治实践：不确定性，伦理和结果 * 烟雾和镜子：管理公共卫生部门的不确定性 * 经济学家和不确定性 * 心理学对不确定性的矛盾看法 * 决策中的不确定性：智能作为解决方案 * 应急管理在不确定性中蓬勃发展 * 不确定性，复杂性和环境 * 不确定性，恐怖主义和执法 * 作为幻觉的不确定性：法律中不确定性的性质和目的 * 第三部分：统一多样性 * 不确定性的本质 * 不确定性的隐喻、动机和道德 * 应对和管理不确定性 * 第四部分：风险评估和管理的含义 * 应对深度不确定性：环境评估和决策的挑战 * 风险、不确定性和社会争议：从风险感知和沟通到公众参与 * 索引
Preface * Part I: Setting the Scene * Introduction * The Many Faces and Masks of Uncertainty * Adopting Orphans: Uncertainty and Other Neglected Aspects of Complex Problems * Part II: More than a Cabinet of Curiosities: Disciplinary and Practice Perspectives on Uncertainty * When Action Can t Wait: Investigating Infectious Disease Outbreaks * Uncertainty and Religion: Ten Provisional Theses * Uncertainty in the Physical Sciences: How Big? How Small? Is It Actually There At All? * Statistics: An Essential Tool for Model Citizens * A Philosopher s Guide to Probability * Musical Improvisation, Creativity and Uncertainty * Uncertainty as a Creative Force in Visual Art * Historians and Disputes over Uncertainty * Approaches to Uncertain Futures * Embracing Social Uncertainties with Complex Systems Science * Heroin: Injected with Uncertainty * Political Practice: Uncertainty, Ethics and Outcomes * Smoke and Mirrors: Managing Uncertainty in the Public Health Sector * Economists and Uncertainty * Psychology s Ambivalent View of Uncertainty * Uncertainty in Decision-making: Intelligence as a Solution * Emergency Management Thrives on Uncertainty * Uncertainty, Complexity and the Environment * Uncertainty, Terrorism and Law Enforcement * Certainty as Illusion: The Nature and Purpose of Uncertainty in the Law * Part III: Unifying Diversity * The Nature of Uncertainty * Uncertainty Metaphors, Motives and Morals * Coping and Managing under Uncertainty * Part IV: Implications for Risk Assessment and Management * Coping with Deep Uncertainty: Challenges for Environmental Assessment and Decision-making * Risk, Uncertainty and Social Controversy: From Risk Perception and Communication to Public Engagement * Index