Risk estimation of the disaster waste generated by both ground motion and tsunami due to the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake
Risk estimation of the disaster waste generated by both ground motion and tsunami due to the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake
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DOI：
10.1002/eqe.3440
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发表时间：
2021-02
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
H. Ishibashi;M. Akiyama;T. Kojima;Koki Aoki;S. Koshimura;D. Frangopol
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Ishibashi;M. Akiyama;T. Kojima;Koki Aoki;S. Koshimura;D. Frangopol
灾害废物的数量是量化社区复原力的最重要绩效指标之一。事实上，灾害废物会对受灾地区的环境产生重大的负面影响，并阻碍灾后恢复进程。在南开海槽地震发生前，日本应采取适当的灾害废物管理措施。预计此次南开海槽地震引起的地震和海啸强度将大大大于2011年东日本大地震引起的地震和海啸强度。本文提出了一种基于风险的方法，用于估计由预期的南开海槽地震引起的地面运动和海啸所产生的灾害废物量。首先，考虑南开海槽断层运动的不确定性，进行了基于蒙特卡罗模拟的概率灾害分析，得到了地震和海啸的危险曲线。与过去地震有关的结构损伤数据被用来绘制地震和海啸易损性曲线。单个结构产生的灾害废物量被定义为发电单位，并根据过去的灾害确定。最后，在地理信息系统的帮助下，利用灾害易损性曲线和发电单元对灾害废弃物的风险进行估算。作为一个说明性的例子，根据提出的框架估计了日本三重县与灾害废物有关的风险曲线和期望值。
The amount of disaster waste is one of the most important performance indicators in quantifying the resilience of a community. In fact, disaster waste can have significant negative impacts on the environment in affected regions and hinder the postdisaster recovery process. Appropriate disaster waste management should be developed in Japan before the occurrence of the Nankai Trough earthquake. It is expected that the seismic and tsunami intensities caused by the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake will be substantially larger than those caused by the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. In this paper, a risk‐based methodology is presented for estimating the amount of disaster waste generated by both the ground motions and the tsunami due to the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake. First, Monte Carlo simulation‐based probabilistic hazard analyses are performed to obtain seismic and tsunami hazard curves considering the uncertainty associated with fault movement along the Nankai Trough. Structural damage data associated with past earthquakes are used to develop seismic and tsunami fragility curves. The amount of disaster waste generated from a single structure is defined as the generation unit and is determined based on past disasters. Finally, with the aid of a geographic information system, the risk of disaster waste can be estimated using the hazard and fragility curves and the generation units. As an illustrative example, the risk curves and expected values associated with disaster waste in Mie Prefecture, Japan, are estimated based on the proposed framework.