Forecasting relativistic electron flux using dynamic multiple regression models
Forecasting relativistic electron flux using dynamic multiple regression models
复制标题
使用动态多元回归模型预测相对论电子通量
DOI：
10.5194/angeo-29-415-2011
复制
发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
S. Walker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hua;S. Billings;A. Sharma;S. Wing;R. Boynton;S. Walker
辐射带中高能电子通量的预测是重要的，因为现代航天器暴露于高能粒子会对机载系统造成重大损害。一个全面的物理模型的过程中有关的电子供能，可用于这样的预测尚未开发。本文利用系统辨识方法推导出一个动态多元回归模型，该模型可用于预测地球同步轨道高能电子通量的日最大值。结果表明，该模型提供了可靠的预测。
The forecast of high energy electron fluxes in the radiation belts is important because the exposure of modern spacecraft to high energy particles can result in significant damage to onboard systems. A comprehensive physical model of processes related to electron energisation that can be used for such a forecast has not yet been developed. In the present paper a systems identification approach is exploited to deduce a dynamic multiple regression model that can be used to predict the daily maximum of high energy electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit from data. It is shown that the model developed provides reliable predictions.