Interest rates and inflation
Interest rates and inflation
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利率和通货膨胀
DOI：
10.1257/aer.91.2.219
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发表时间：
2001
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Warren E. Weber
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
F. Álvarez;R. Lucas;Warren E. Weber
货币政策的工具应该是短期利率，政策的重点应该是控制通货膨胀，通过提高短期利率来降低通货膨胀，这是业内人士的共识。这一共识的核心是对数量论的拒绝。鉴于大量证据将货币增长、通货膨胀和利率联系起来，这种拒绝是一个困难的步骤：平均货币增长率的上升与平均通胀率和利率的同等增长相关。这些观察结果并不排除使用短期利率作为货币工具的建设性作用。一种可能性是，在通货膨胀加剧的情况下提高短期利率只是减少货币增长的一种间接方式：出售债券并将资金从系统中取出。另一种可能性是，虽然控制货币总量是长期平均通胀率较低的关键，但利率政策可以改善利率和价格的短期行为。货币增长、通货膨胀和利率之间的短期联系非常不可靠，因此还有很大的改进空间。这些可能性确实值得探索，但这样做需要新的理论。在旧教科书的图表中找不到将利率政策与货币数量论所依据的证据相协调所需的分析。
A consensus has emerged among practitioners that the instrument of monetary policy ought to be the short-term interest rate, that policy should be focused on the control of inflation, and that inflation can be reduced by increasing short-term interest rates. At the center of this consensus is a rejection of the quantity theory. Such a rejection is a difficult step to take, given the mass of evidence linking money growth, inflation, and interest rates: increases in average rates of money growth are associated with equal increases in average inflation rates and interest rates. These observations need not rule out a constructive role for the use of short-term interest rates as a monetary instrument. One possibility is that increasing short-term rates in the face of increases in inflation is just an indirect way of reducing money growth: sell bonds and take money out of the system. Another possibility is that, while control of monetary aggregates is the key to low long-run average inflation rates, an interest-rate policy can improve the short-run behavior of interest rates and prices. The shortrun connections among money growth, inflation, and interest rates are very unreliable, so there is much room for improvement. These possibilities are surely worth exploring, but doing so requires new theory. The analysis needed to reconcile interest-rate policies with the evidence on which the quantity theory of money is grounded cannot be found in old textbook diagrams.