Burden of disease attributed to ambient PM2.5 and PM10 exposure in 190 cities in China
Burden of disease attributed to ambient PM2.5 and PM10 exposure in 190 cities in China
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DOI：
10.1007/s11356-017-8575-7
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发表时间：
2017-04-01
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Dikshit, Anil Kumar
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Maji, Kamal Jyoti;Arora, Mohit;Dikshit, Anil Kumar
颗粒物空气污染正在成为中国城市中严重的公共卫生问题。残疾调整生命年（DIFRS）和经济损失与空气污染相关的健康影响的关联需要定量分析，以纠正空气质量的措施。本研究采用基于流行病学的监测响应函数，对2014-2015年中国190个城市空气中颗粒物PM2.5和PM10的健康影响进行了定量评估。PM2.5和PM10的年均浓度分别为57 +/- 18 μ g/m3（范围为18至119 μ g/m3）和97.7 +/- 34.2 μ g/m3（范围为33.5至252.8 μ g/m3）。根据目前的研究，每年因PM2.5导致的过早死亡总估计数为722，370 [95%置信区间（CI）= 322，716 - 987，519]，其中79%为成人脑血管疾病（中风）和缺血性心脏病（IHD）。特大城市的过早死亡率非常高，如重庆（25,162/年）、北京（19,702/年）、上海（19,617/年）、天津（13,726/年）、成都（12,356/年）。在中国，PM10污染已导致1，491，774（95%CI = 972，770 - 1，960，303）例过早死亡（年龄> 30岁）。此外，3，614，064例慢性支气管炎（CB）; 13，759，894例所有年龄段的哮喘发作; 191，709例COPD相关的住院（HA）病例; 499，048例麻醉相关的HA; 357，816例脑血管HA;在2014-2015年期间，由于PM10污染，估计有308，129例心血管相关HA。重庆、北京、保定、天津和石家庄是污染相关死亡的前五位贡献者，分别占PM10污染导致的总死亡人数的3.10%、2.71%、2.49%、2.20%和2.02%。2014-2015年，中国与PM2.5和PM10污染相关的总死亡人数分别为720万和2066万，其中死亡率和慢性支气管炎约占PM10总死亡人数的93.3%。在此期间，PM10对健康影响的经济成本约为3041.22亿美元，约占中国国内生产总值（GDP）的2.94%。预计特大城市在总费用中所占比例相对较大。本方法可作为一种工具，以帮助政策制定者和污染控制局当局，进一步分析成本和效益的空气污染管理计划在中国。
Particulate air pollution is becoming a serious public health concern in urban cities of China. Association of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and economic loss with air pollution-related health effects demand quantitative analysis for correctional measures in air quality. This study applies an epidemiology-based exposure-response function to obtain the quantitative estimate of health impact of particulate matter PM2.5 and PM10 across 190 cities of China during years 2014-2015. The annual average concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 is 57 +/- 18 mu g/m(3) (ranging from 18 to 119 mu g/m(3)) and 97.7 +/- 34.2 mu g/m(3) (ranging from 33.5 to 252.8 mu g/m(3)), respectively. Based on the present study, the total estimated annual premature mortality due to PM2.5 is 722,370 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 322,716-987,519], 79% of which accounts for adult cerebrovascular disease (stroke) and ischemic heart disease (IHD). The premature mortality in megacities is very high, such as Chongqing (25,162/year), Beijing (19,702/year), Shanghai (19,617/year), Tianjin (13,726/year), and Chengdu (12,356/year). PM10 pollution has caused 1,491,774 (95% CI = 972,770-1,960,303) premature deaths (age > 30) in China. Further, 3,614,064 cases of chronic bronchitis (CB); 13,759,894 cases of asthma attack among all ages; 191,709 COPD-related hospital admission (HA) cases; 499,048 respiratory-related HA; 357,816 cerebrovascular HA; and 308,129 cardiovascular-related HA due to PM10 pollution have been estimated during 2014-2015. Chongqing, Beijing, Baoding, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang are the top five contributors to pollution-related mortality, accounting for 3.10, 2.71, 2.49, 2.20, and 2.02%, respectively, of the total deaths caused by PM10 pollution. The total DALYs associated with PM2.5 and PM10 pollution in China is 7.2 and 20.66 million in 2014-2015, and mortality and chronic bronchitis shared about 93.3% of the total DALYs for PM10. During this period, the economic cost of health impact due to PM10 is approximately US$304,122 million, which accounts for about 2.94% of China's gross domestic product (GDP). Megacities are expected to contribute relatively more to the total costs. The present methodology could be used as a tool to help policy makers and pollution control board authorities, to further analyze costs and benefits of air pollution management programs in China.