How warming and steric sea level rise relate to cumulative carbon emissions
How warming and steric sea level rise relate to cumulative carbon emissions
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DOI：
10.1029/2012gl052771
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发表时间：
2012-10-13
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Woodworth, Philip L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Williams, Richard G.;Goodwin, Philip;Woodworth, Philip L.
全球海洋表面变暖和海平面上升几乎随着累积碳排放量线性增加，以达到大气-海洋平衡，在排放停止后许多世纪达到了平衡。地表变暖随着累积排放量的增加而增加，比例因子为 Delta T-surface:2 x CO2/(I-B ln 2)，地表空气温度范围为 0.8 至 1.9 K (1000 PgC)(-1)，具体取决于气候敏感性 Delta T-surface:2 x CO2 和缓冲碳库存 I-B。空间海平面上升同样随着累积排放量的增加而增加，并取决于大洋的气候敏感性，范围从 0.4 K 到 2.7 K；根据两个地球系统模型的诊断，该系数比表面温度小 0.4 +/- 0.2。累积排放量为 5000 PgC 时，隐含的立体海平面上升范围为 0.7 m 至 5 m，在排放停止后可能会达到 500 年或更长时间。引用：Williams, R. G.、P. Goodwin、A. Ridgwell 和 P. L. Woodworth (2012)，变暖和海平面上升与累积碳排放的关系，地球物理学。资源。快报，39，L19715，doi：10.1029/2012GL052771。
Surface warming and steric sea level rise over the global ocean nearly linearly increase with cumulative carbon emissions for an atmosphere-ocean equilibrium, reached many centuries after emissions cease. Surface warming increases with cumulative emissions with a proportionality factor, Delta T-surface:2 x CO2/(I-B ln 2), ranging from 0.8 to 1.9 K (1000 PgC)(-1) for surface air temperature, depending on the climate sensitivity Delta T-surface:2 x CO2 and the buffered carbon inventory I-B. Steric sea level rise similarly increases with cumulative emissions and depends on the climate sensitivity of the bulk ocean, ranging from 0.4 K to 2.7 K; a factor 0.4 +/- 0.2 smaller than that for surface temperature based on diagnostics of two Earth System models. The implied steric sea level rise ranges from 0.7 m to 5 m for a cumulative emission of 5000 PgC, approached perhaps 500 years or more after emissions cease. Citation: Williams, R. G., P. Goodwin, A. Ridgwell, and P. L. Woodworth (2012), How warming and steric sea level rise relate to cumulative carbon emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19715, doi:10.1029/2012GL052771.