Simulating the effects of climate variability on waterbodies and wetland‐dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region
Simulating the effects of climate variability on waterbodies and wetland‐dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region
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模拟气候变化对 Prairie Pothole 地区水体和依赖湿地的鸟类的影响
DOI：
10.1002/ecs2.2711
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Schwartz, F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McIntyre, N. E.;Liu, G.;Gorzo, J.;Wright, C. K.;Guntenspergen, G. R.;Schwartz, F.
了解鸟类种群如何应对气候多变的北美草原坑洼地区（PPR）的水体可用性的变化取决于能够耦合水文和气候建模，以代表潜在的未来景观。使用缩小尺度的气候资料进行坑洼复杂水文模式的模式试验（在四种大气环流气候模式和两种气体排放情景下，与降水、温度和潜在蒸散量相关的变量，空间分辨率为1/8°）用于预测PPR的密苏里州Coteau部分六种重点湿地依赖鸟类的丰度，提供与资源管理相关的空间尺度的总体情景。虽然5月池塘（鸟类繁殖季节的水体）的预计数量随时间波动，具有一定的十年周期性（并且在给定年份中存在的数量反映了前三年的丰度），但集合模型平均值表明，到下一个世纪之交，水体的平均数量会增加。总体而言，模型实验保守地预测，与PPR中1967年至2005年的基线期相比，到2090年至2099年，水体数量将增加11.75%。依赖湿地的鸟类的发生和丰度与水体动态的时间模式和十年周期性显著相关。由于依赖湿地的鸟类的出现和丰度与草原坑洞数量之间存在密切联系，预计水体的增加将导致到21世纪世纪末6种重点物种的出现率总体增加11.97%，丰度增加8.63%;这些结果与预测的干旱相关的水体和鸟类减少形成对比。这种综合水文-气候方法提供了一种评估依赖湿地的鸟类种群如何应对气候变化导致的湿地栖息地可用性变化的方法。我们的研究结果提供的信息，可以帮助管理人员决定如何减轻气候变化对湿地栖息地和生物群分布的影响。
Understanding how bird populations respond to changes in waterbody availability in the climatically variable Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America hinges on being able to couple hydrological and climate modeling to represent potential future landscapes. Model experiments run with the Pothole Complex Hydrologic Model using downscaled climate data (variables relating to precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration at 1/8° spatial resolution under four general circulation climate models and two gas emissions scenarios) were used to forecast the abundances of six focal wetland‐dependent bird species in the Missouri Coteau portion of the PPR, providing ensemble scenarios at a spatial scale relevant to resource management. Although the projected number of May ponds (waterbodies present during bird breeding season) fluctuated through time with some decadal periodicity (and with the number present in a given year reflecting abundance over the previous three years), the ensemble model average indicated an increase in the average number of waterbodies present by the turn of the next century. Overall, the model experiments conservatively projected an 11.75% increase in the number of waterbodies present by 2090–2099 compared to a baseline period from 1967 to 2005 in the PPR. Wetland‐dependent bird occurrence and abundance were significantly associated with temporal patterns and decadal periodicity in waterbody dynamics. Because of the strong associations between wetland‐dependent bird occurrence and abundance and the number of prairie potholes, projected waterbody increases are forecasted to result in an 11.97% overall increase in occurrence and 8.63% increase in abundance of the six focal species by the end of the 21st century; these results contrast with forecasted drought‐associated declines in waterbodies and birds in the PPR. This integrated hydrological–climatological approach offers a means of assessing how wetland‐dependent bird populations may respond to changes in wetland habitat availability due to a changing climate. Our results provide information that can help managers decide how to mitigate the effects of climate shifts on the distribution of wetland habitat and biota.
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