Time is an affliction: Why ecology cannot be as predictive as physics and why it needs time series
Time is an affliction: Why ecology cannot be as predictive as physics and why it needs time series
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DOI：
10.1016/j.seares.2014.07.008
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发表时间：
2015-07-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Wiltshire, K. H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Boero, F.;Kraberg, A. C.;Wiltshire, K. H.
生态系统依赖于约束和历史偶然性，这两者都决定了它们目前可观察到的系统状态。与仅受约束(即规律)支配的历史系统不同，历史系统及其动态只有在经过一段时间的适当描述后才能被理解。描述这些动态和了解长期变异性可以被视为长时间序列的任务，它不仅测量简单的非生物特征，而且测量复杂的生物变量，如物种多样性和丰度，从而能够深入了解食物网和整个生态系统的功能。长时间序列对于理解变化，以及至关重要的内在系统变异性，从而预见未来情景是不可替代的。尽管目前在资助和评估科学研究方面的政策阻碍了长期系列的维持，尽管显然需要应对气候变化的长期战略。时间序列对于追求经常被援引的生态系统办法以及从大规模和长期地球观测站的简单监测方案中脱颖而出至关重要，从而促进更好地了解生态系统变化的原因和影响。欧洲水域目前为数不多的长时间序列必须综合起来并联网，以便利形成一系列观测站的节点，这些观测站一起应该能够对欧洲水域的特征和特征进行长期管理。这一专门领域的人力能力建设和更强有力的社会参与也是迫切需要的，因为欧洲科学界正在迅速丧失识别和描述物种、从而在时间序列中可靠地记录这些物种的专门知识。(C)2014爱思唯尔B.V.保留所有权利。
Ecological systems depend on both constraints and historical contingencies, both of which shape their present observable system state. In contrast to ahistorical systems, which are governed solely by constraints (i.e. laws), historical systems and their dynamics can be understood only if properly described, in the course of time. Describing these dynamics and understanding long-term variability can be seen as the mission of long time series measuring not only simple abiotic features but also complex biological variables, such as species diversity and abundances, allowing deep insights in the functioning of food webs and ecosystems in general. Long time-series are irreplaceable for understanding change, and crucially inherent system variability and thus envisaging future scenarios. This notwithstanding current policies in funding and evaluating scientific research discourage the maintenance of long term series, despite a clear need for long-term strategies to cope with climate change. Time series are crucial for a pursuit of the much invoked Ecosystem Approach and to the passage from simple monitoring programs of large-scale and long-term Earth observatories thus promoting a better understanding of the causes and effects of change in ecosystems. The few ongoing long time series in European waters must be integrated and networked so as to facilitate the formation of nodes of a series of observatories which, together, should allow the long-term management of the features and characteristics of European waters. Human capacity building in this region of expertise and a stronger societal involvement are also urgently needed, since the expertise in recognizing and describing species and therefore recording them reliably in the context of time series is rapidly vanishing from the European Scientific community. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.