Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests
Modelling the influence of predicted future climate change on the risk of wind damage within New Zealand's planted forests
复制标题
模拟预测的未来气候变化对新西兰人工林风害风险的影响
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12900
复制
发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
M. Watt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Moore;M. Watt
风是新西兰人工林的主要非生物干扰，但人们对未来气候变化如何影响风害风险知之甚少。我们将机械风害模型（ForestGALES）与辐射松（Pinus radiata D.）的经验生长模型联系起来。Don）和基于过程的增长模型（cenw）来预测不同未来排放情景和未来风气候假设下的风损害风险。在B1（低）、A1B（中等）和A2（高）排放情景下，使用cenw模型估算1990年CO2浓度不变的场地生产力，以及CO2浓度从当前值到2040年和2090年预期值的假设增加。林分的发展是仿照不同水平的网站生产力，对比造林制度和新西兰各地的网站。使用ForestGALES模型预测了每个制度和排放情景组合的风害风险。还研究了未来风气候强度变化的敏感性。结果表明，在不同的排放情景下，树木生长率的增加对风害风险的影响最大。在A2排放情景下，随着CO2浓度的增加，在高林分密度下生长的林分的风险增加最大。在这种情况下，生产力的提高导致树高增加，而直径没有相应的增加，从而导致更细长的树木，预计将面临更大的风害风险。预计将发生的极端风气候的适度增加进一步增加了风害的风险。这些结果对发展适应气候变化的造林制度具有影响，也表明未来生产力的提高可能会被干扰造成的更大损失所抵消。
Wind is the major abiotic disturbance in New Zealand's planted forests, but little is known about how the risk of wind damage may be affected by future climate change. We linked a mechanistic wind damage model (ForestGALES) to an empirical growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) and a process‐based growth model (cenw) to predict the risk of wind damage under different future emissions scenarios and assumptions about the future wind climate. The cenw model was used to estimate site productivity for constant CO2 concentration at 1990 values and for assumed increases in CO2 concentration from current values to those expected during 2040 and 2090 under the B1 (low), A1B (mid‐range) and A2 (high) emission scenarios. Stand development was modelled for different levels of site productivity, contrasting silvicultural regimes and sites across New Zealand. The risk of wind damage was predicted for each regime and emission scenario combination using the ForestGALES model. The sensitivity to changes in the intensity of the future wind climate was also examined. Results showed that increased tree growth rates under the different emissions scenarios had the greatest impact on the risk of wind damage. The increase in risk was greatest for stands growing at high stand density under the A2 emissions scenario with increased CO2 concentration. The increased productivity under this scenario resulted in increased tree height, without a corresponding increase in diameter, leading to more slender trees that were predicted to be at greater risk from wind damage. The risk of wind damage was further increased by the modest increases in the extreme wind climate that are predicted to occur. These results have implications for the development of silvicultural regimes that are resilient to climate change and also indicate that future productivity gains may be offset by greater losses from disturbances.