Stochastic modelling of direct costs of pancreas disease (PD) in Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.)
Stochastic modelling of direct costs of pancreas disease (PD) in Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.)
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DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2009.10.001
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发表时间：
2010-02-01
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Bruheim, Torkjel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aunsmo, Arnfinn;Valle, Paul Steinar;Bruheim, Torkjel
开发了一个估算工业化水产养殖中疾病直接成本的经济模型，包括以下方面：生物损失、额外成本、治疗成本、预防成本和保险赔付。在挪威养殖的大西洋鲑鱼胰腺疾病（PD）爆发的直接成本估计模型中，使用概率分布的生物损失和支出与疾病。PD对死亡率，生长，饲料转化率和胴体品质及其相关性的生物学效应，以及预防成本的建立使用从专家小组引出的数据，并结合基础损失的控制模型。通过向管理疾病暴发的工作人员发送调查问卷，收集了与治疗有关的额外费用和费用。模型中的价格和生产成本采用了挪威2007年的国家统计数据。在一个放养50万只小鲑鱼的地点（与没有该病的类似地点相比），与PD爆发相关的直接成本估计为1440万挪威克朗（5%和95%百分位数：10.5和17.8）（2007年挪威克朗= 0.12或0.17美元）。产量减少到70%（5%和95%百分位数：57%和81%）的可销售生物质。生产成本增加到每公斤6.0挪威克朗（5%和95%百分位数：3.5和8.7）。(C)2009 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。
An economic model for estimating the direct costs of disease in industrial aquaculture was developed to include the following areas: biological losses, extraordinary costs, costs of treatment, costs of prevention and insurance pay-out. Direct costs of a pancreas disease (PD) outbreak in Norwegian farmed Atlantic salmon were estimated in the model, using probability distributions for the biological losses and expenditures associated with the disease. The biological effects of PD on mortality, growth, feed conversion and carcass quality and their correlations, together with costs of prevention were established using elicited data from an expert panel, and combined with basal losses in a control model. Extraordinary costs and costs associated with treatment were collected through a questionnaire sent to staff managing disease outbreaks. Norwegian national statistics for 2007 were used for prices and production costs in the model. Direct costs associated with a PD-outbreak in a site stocked with 500,000 smolts (vs. a similar site without the disease) were estimated to NOK (Norwegian kroner) 14.4 million (5% and 95% percentile: 10.5 and 17.8) (NOK=(sic)0.12 or $0.17 for 2007). Production was reduced to 70% (5% and 95% percentile: 57% and 81%) saleable biomass. and at an increased production cost of NOK 6.0 per kg (5% and 95% percentile: 3.5 and 8.7). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.