What Horizon for Price Stability
What Horizon for Price Stability
复制标题
价格稳定的范围是什么
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.355585
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发表时间：
2000
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
F. Smets
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Smets
本文在一个统一的框架中分析了在面对意外干扰时实现价格稳定的适当范围以及价格水平与通货膨胀目标的选择这两个问题。通过对欧元区经济的一个小规模预测模型的分析，得出了三个主要结论：1）社会目标函数中价格稳定的权重越大，经济的“前瞻性”程度越高，菲利普斯曲线的斜率越大，政策期限越短; 2）价格水平目标的最优政策期限一般大于通货膨胀目标的最优政策期限; 3）即使社会关心通胀稳定（而不是稳定价格水平），给央行一个价格水平目标往往是值得的。（而不是通胀目标），前提是最佳选择的期限要长一些，并且在损失函数中有一个小的权重用于利率稳定。然而，这一结果取决于经济结构。JEL分类：E4，E5
This paper analyses in a unified framework the twin issues of the appropriate horizon for achieving price stability in the face of unexpected disturbances and the choice of a price level versus an inflation objective. Using a small estimated forward-looking model of the euro area economy, the three main findings are: 1) The policy horizon becomes shorter the greater the weight on price stability in society's objective function, the higher the degree of 'forward-lookingness' in the economy and the greater the slope of the Phillips curve; 2) The optimal policy horizon for a price level objective is generally greater than that for an inflation objective; 3) Even if society cares about inflation stabilisation (rather than the stabilisation of the price level), it often pays to give the central bank a price level objective (rather than an inflation objective), provided the horizon is optimally chosen to be somewhat longer and there is a small weight on interest rate stabilisation in the loss function. This result depends, however, on the structure of the economy. JEL Classification: E4, E5