Mechanistically based probability modelling, life prediction and reliability assessment
Mechanistically based probability modelling, life prediction and reliability assessment
复制标题
基于机械的概率建模、寿命预测和可靠性评估
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Harlow
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Robert P. Wei;D. Harlow
寿命预测和可靠性评估是现代工程系统生命周期工程与管理(LCEM)的重要组成部分。这些系统的范围从微电子和生物医疗设备到大型机械和结构。为了有效，LCEM的基本方法必须转变为体现基于机械的概率模型，而不是更传统的基于经验的统计模型，用于预测损伤的演变和分布。本文对概率方法和统计方法进行了比较和区别。通过选定的实例说明了基于对关键实验的机械理解的模型开发过程。通过一个与长期服役的飞机有关的铝合金腐蚀和腐蚀疲劳损伤的演变和分布的例子，说明了这种方法的有效性。
Life prediction and reliability assessment are essential components for the life-cycle engineering and management (LCEM) of modern engineered systems. These systems can range from microelectronic and bio-medical devices to large machinery and structures. To be effective, the underlying approach to LCEM must be transformed to embody mechanistically based probability modelling, vis-à-vis the more traditional experientially based statistical modelling, for predicting damage evolution and distribution. In this paper, the probability and statistical approaches are compared and differentiated. The process of model development on the basis of mechanistic understanding derived from critical experiments is illustrated through selected examples. The efficacy of this approach is illustrated through an example of the evolution and distribution of corrosion and corrosion fatigue damage in aluminium alloys in relation to aircraft that had been in long-term service.