Estimating income and price elasticities of residential electricity demand with Autometrics
Estimating income and price elasticities of residential electricity demand with Autometrics
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105411
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发表时间：
2021-07-08
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Pellini, Elisabetta
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Pellini, Elisabetta
本文利用1975-2018年的年度时间序列，估计了欧洲12个主要国家居民用电需求的收入弹性和价格弹性。在建模工作中，我们采用了一种新的计量经济学方法，其特点是自动选择模型，饱和方法检测异常值和结构突变，以及自动模型选择算法Autometrics。为每个国家选择的规格是一个误差修正模型，一旦考虑到离群值和突变，它就会出现用电量、收入、电价和气候变量之间的协整关系。实证结果表明，所有国家的长期收入弹性估计值均小于1，长期价格弹性绝对值均小于1。这些结果表明，对于欧洲国家来说，电力是一种正常的商品，需求是价格无弹性的。
This paper estimates the income and price elasticities of the residential electricity demand for twelve major European countries using annual time series from 1975 to 2018. In the modelling exercise we adopt a novel econometric approach that features automatic model selection, saturation methods for detecting outliers and structural breaks, and the automatic model selection algorithm Autometrics. The selected specification for each country is an error correction model, from which it emerges a cointegrating relationship between electricity consumption, income, electricity price and climate variables, once that outliers and breaks are accounted for. The empirical results show that the estimated long-run income elasticities are less than one for all countries, and that the long-run price elasticities are in all cases less than one in absolute value. These results suggest that for European countries electricity is a normal good and that demand is price inelastic.