Changes in Family Structure in China: A Simulation Study
Changes in Family Structure in China: A Simulation Study
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中国家庭结构的变化：模拟研究
DOI：
10.2307/1973431
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发表时间：
1986
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Yi Zeng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yi Zeng
用于研究人口因素变化对中国家庭规模和结构影响的模拟模型表明，从 1950-70 年到 1981 年，平均家庭规模下降了 10%，从每个家庭 4.90 人下降到 4.37 人。 1981年模拟中核心家庭的比例（51.3%）比1950-70年的水平（72.2%）有所下降。这两个变化很大程度上是由于生育率下降造成的。大多数中国家庭（约90%）仍然有丈夫和妻子，这种特征很可能会持续下去。生育率和三代同居的倾向将是影响中国家庭规模和类型的最重要因素，而死亡率和婚姻模式变化的影响则不大。可以预见，降低共同居住倾向的社会经济因素（例如，城市地区的文化现代化、住房限制、向城市地区迁移以及更多的人领取养老金和社会保障）与维持这种倾向的因素（例如，大家庭希望确保廉价的劳动力供应、养老金制度的缓慢发展以及照顾和尊重老年人的道德传统）之间存在相互作用。由于未来几年共同居住的倾向不太可能大幅下降，核心家庭的比例可能会下降。然而，随后生育率的进一步下降预计将加剧共同居住倾向逐渐下降的影响，并增加核心家庭的比例。
A simulation model used to study the effects of changing demographic factors on family size and structure in China indicates that average family size declined 10% between 1950-70 and 1981 dropping from 4.90 to 4.37 persons per family. The proportion of nuclear families in the 1981 simulation (51.3%) dropped from the 1950-70 level (72.2%). Both of these changes result largely from declining fertility. The majority of Chinese families (about 90%) continue to have both husband and wife present a feature that is likely to continue. Fertility and the propensity for coresidence of three generations will be the most important factors affecting Chinese family size and type while the effects of changing mortality and nuptiality patterns will be modest. An interplay of socioeconomic factors reducing the propensity for coresidence (e.g. cultural modernization housing constraints in urban areas migration to urban areas and more people on pensions and social security) and factors sustaining this propensity (e.g. the desire for large families to ensure an inexpensive labor supply slow development of the pension system and the ethical tradition of care and respect for the elderly) can be expected. Since the propensity for coresidence is not likely to fall dramatically in the years ahead the proportion of nuclear families will probably decrease. Later however further fertility reductions are expected to intensify the effects of a gradually decreasing propensity for coresidence and increase the proportion of nuclear families.