Interplate seismogenic zones along the Kuril-Japan trench inferred from GPS data inversion
Interplate seismogenic zones along the Kuril-Japan trench inferred from GPS data inversion
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DOI：
10.1038/ngeo421
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发表时间：
2009-02-01
影响因子：
18.3
通讯作者：
Matsu'ura, Mitsuhiro
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hashimoto, Chihiro;Noda, Akemi;Matsu'ura, Mitsuhiro
在日本周围的俯冲带，四个板块相互作用，大地震反复发生（1）。这些板间地震是板块相对运动驱动的构造应力积累和释放过程的一部分（2-4）。地震之间的应力积累是由于滑动不足（滑动不足以完全适应板块运动）。因此，对于大地震的预测，监测板块界面上的滑动亏损分布是重要的。在这里，我们应用基于贝叶斯建模的反演方法（使用关于断层滑动的大小和分布的直接和间接先验信息（5）），从全球定位系统数据中获得水平和垂直速度。对于1996年至2000年的地震平静期，我们得到了一个精确的分布在北美和太平洋板块之间的界面上的滑动亏损率在日本周围，它揭示了一个沟平行带的滑动亏损，在10-40公里的深度范围内的六个峰值。这些峰值与沿着千岛-日本海沟的过去大的板间地震的震源区相一致。我们的结论是，滑动亏损带识别与我们的方法是潜在的大地震震源区。
In the subduction zones around Japan, where four plates interact with one another, large earthquakes have occurred repeatedly(1). These interplate earthquakes are part of the process of tectonic stress accumulation and release that is driven by relative plate motion(2-4). Stress accumulation between earthquakes results from slip deficit ( slip that is insufficient to fully accommodate plate movement). For the prediction of large earthquakes, it is therefore important to monitor the distribution of slip deficit on plate interfaces. Here we apply an inversion method based on Bayesian modelling ( using direct and indirect prior information on the magnitude and distribution of fault slip(5)) to horizontal and vertical velocities from global positioning system data. For the seismically calm period between 1996 and 2000, we obtain a precise distribution of slip-deficit rates on the interface between the North American and Pacific plates around Japan, which reveals a trench-parallel belt of slip deficit with six peaks in the depth range of 10-40 km. These peaks agree with the source regions of past large interplate earthquakes along the Kuril-Japan trench. We conclude that the slip-deficit zones identified with our method are potential source regions of large earthquakes.