Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system
Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system
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DOI：
10.1038/s41558-019-0400-5
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Rounsevell, Mark
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brown, Calum;Alexander, Peter;Rounsevell, Mark
要实现《巴黎协定》将全球平均气温上升幅度限制在1.5摄氏度以内的目标，就需要对土地系统进行重大改变。然而，个别国家实现这些变革的计划仍然模糊不清，几乎可以肯定是不够的，而且不太可能得到充分执行。这些缺陷部分是由于在执行陆地减缓战略方面存在与时间滞后有关的可避免的“盲点”。关键的盲点包括不同土地系统政策之间的不一致、土地系统变化的空间和时间滞后，以及某些减缓办法的有害后果。我们认为，有必要提高认识，这些过程，以确定可实现的缓解行动，避免过于乐观的假设和随之而来的政策失败。
Achieving the Paris Agreement's aim of limiting average global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees C requires substantial changes in the land system. However, individual countries' plans to accomplish these changes remain vague, almost certainly insufficient and unlikely to be implemented in full. These shortcomings are partially the result of avoidable 'blind spots' relating to time lags inherent in the implementation of land-based mitigation strategies. Key blind spots include inconsistencies between different land-system policies, spatial and temporal lags in land-system change, and detrimental consequences of some mitigation options. We suggest that improved recognition of these processes is necessary to identify achievable mitigation actions, avoiding excessively optimistic assumptions and consequent policy failures.