The scenario analysis on CO2 emission mitigation potential in the Turkish electricity sector: 2006–2030
The scenario analysis on CO2 emission mitigation potential in the Turkish electricity sector: 2006–2030
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DOI：
10.1016/j.energy.2012.10.059
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Betül Özer;E. Görgün;S. Incecik
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Betül Özer;E. Görgün;S. Incecik
基于长期能源替代规划系统模型的情景分析方法被用于分析土耳其电力部门的减排情况。“业务模拟”和“缓解情景”涉及不同方法的模拟。每一种情况都代表了不同的发展道路，由于各种政策，土耳其电力部门可能会有不同的发展道路。模拟一直适用到2030年，而2006年被设定为基准年。在基准情景下，二氧化碳（CO2）排放量将大幅上升。在减缓情景中，2006年至2030年期间，与电力相关的二氧化碳排放量每年增长5.8%，而在此期间，电力产量平均每年增长6.6%。通过对各情景所建议的CO2排放量进行比较，可以看出电力部门的减排潜力。减缓情景的特点是其积极的温室气体（GHG）控制政策，并可以实现17.5%的减缓率在模拟期间。从2006年到2030年，“一切照旧”情景和减缓情景之间的累计CO2减排量为9.03亿吨。此外，二零三零年的二氧化碳排放强度较二零零六年下降18. 4%。
A scenario analysis method based on the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used for an analysis of reduction of emissions in the electricity sector of Turkey. Business As Usual (BAU) and Mitigation Scenarios address the simulations from different approaches. Each scenario represents a different development path which is possible in Turkey's electricity sector due to various policies. The simulations are applied until the year 2030, while 2006 is set as the base year. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will rise significantly under the Baseline Scenario. In the Mitigation Scenario, electricity-related CO2emissions grew by 5.8% annually between 2006 and 2030, while electricity output grew at an average of 6.6% per annum in this period. Comparison between the CO2emissions suggested by the scenarios presents the mitigation potential of the electricity sector. The Mitigation Scenario is characterized by its aggressive greenhouse gas (GHG) control policies and can achieve mitigation ratio of 17.5% over the simulation period. The cumulative CO2emission reduction between the BAU and Mitigation Scenarios from 2006 to 2030 is 903 million tons. Additionally, CO2emission intensity has decreased by 18.4% in 2030 compared to 2006.