Quantifying the Importance of Rapid Adjustments for Global Precipitation Changes
Quantifying the Importance of Rapid Adjustments for Global Precipitation Changes
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DOI：
10.1029/2018gl079474
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发表时间：
2018-10-28
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Watson-Parris, D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Myhre, G.;Kramer, R. J.;Watson-Parris, D.
不同的气候驱动因素以不同的方式影响降水。在这里，我们使用辐射核来了解气候模式中快速调整过程对降水的影响。快速调整通常由外部气候驱动因素对大气的初始加热或冷却触发。对于降水变化，由于温度、水汽和云的变化而进行的快速调整最为重要。在这项研究中，我们调查了五个气候驱动因素（CO2，CH4，太阳辐照度，黑碳和硫酸盐气溶胶）。快速降水响应CO2的增加一倍，增加10倍的黑碳被发现是相似的，尽管非常不同的瞬时变化的辐射冷却，个人的快速调整，和明智的加热。与其他气候驱动因素扰动相比，在涉及太阳辐照度增加的实验中，快速调整的模式多样性较小，这也可以在降水变化中看到。简明语言总结未来降水变化预测在区域和全球尺度上都是不确定的。了解气候模式降水变化的多样性以及这些模式如何响应各种气候驱动因素，如温室气体和气溶胶，是气候研究的一个关键课题。使用先进的技术，我们量化的过程在短时间尺度上改变降水的变化，并表明，温度，水蒸气和云的垂直分布的变化对降水变化的贡献非常不同的各种气候驱动因素。我们的研究结果表明，降水变化的模型多样性在气候驱动因素之间变化很大。
Different climate drivers influence precipitation in different ways. Here we use radiative kernels to understand the influence of rapid adjustment processes on precipitation in climate models. Rapid adjustments are generally triggered by the initial heating or cooling of the atmosphere from an external climate driver. For precipitation changes, rapid adjustments due to changes in temperature, water vapor, and clouds are most important. In this study we have investigated five climate drivers (CO2, CH4, solar irradiance, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols). The fast precipitation responses to a doubling of CO2 and a 10-fold increase in black carbon are found to be similar, despite very different instantaneous changes in the radiative cooling, individual rapid adjustments, and sensible heating. The model diversity in rapid adjustments is smaller for the experiment involving an increase in the solar irradiance compared to the other climate driver perturbations, and this is also seen in the precipitation changes.Plain Language Summary Future projections of precipitation changes are uncertain, both on regional and global scales. Understanding the climate models' diversity of precipitation change and how these models respond to various climate drivers, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols, is a key topic in climate research. Using sophisticated techniques, we quantify the processes altering precipitation changes on a short time scale and show that changes in the vertical profile of temperature, water vapor, and clouds contribute very differently to precipitation changes for various climate drivers. Our results show that model diversity in precipitation changes varies strongly between the climate drivers.