Impacts of federal precursor chemical regulations on methamphetamine arrests
Impacts of federal precursor chemical regulations on methamphetamine arrests
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1360-0443.2005.01032.x
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发表时间：
2005-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6
通讯作者：
Liu, LM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cunningham, JK;Liu, LM
美国政府多次对前体化学品麻黄碱和伪麻黄碱进行管制，以限制甲基苯丙胺的生产/供应，从而限制甲基苯丙胺问题。研究发现，这些规定减少了甲基苯丙胺的住院人数，但作者认为其他问题没有受到影响。本研究探讨是否影响甲基苯丙胺逮捕的法规。设计ARIMA干预时间序列分析与控制系列。设置加州（1982-2001年）。测量因变量系列：每月甲基苯丙胺逮捕。管制系列：每月逮捕大麻和可卡因/海洛因。含有麻黄碱作为单一活性药物成分的产品：1995年8月管制。伪麻黄碱产品：1997年10月管制。大规模生产者使用这些形式的麻黄碱和伪麻黄碱。麻黄碱结合其他活性药物成分（如各种感冒药）-主要由小规模生产者使用：监管1996年10月。结果针对小规模生产者的监管（1996年）没有显着影响。相比之下，甲基苯丙胺逮捕停止上升，并下降了31%至45%的三次大规模生产商使用的前体化学品的监管。在《散装粉末条例》（1989年）颁布的三年内，以及在《麻黄素单一成分条例》（1995年）颁布的两年内，逮捕人数全面回升。在上一次管制（1997年，伪麻黄素产品）之后的4年中，逮捕人数仅部分回升。这些影响与住院报告的影响相似。控制系列一般不受影响。结论前体法规针对大规模生产者影响甲基苯丙胺的逮捕，刑事司法问题，就像他们影响甲基苯丙胺入院的公共卫生问题。需要进行持续的研究，以确定这些问题最终是否会从上次监管中完全反弹。
Aims The US government regulated precursor chemicals, ephedrine and pseudoephedrine, multiple times to limit methamphetamine production/availability and thus methamphetamine problems. Research has found that the regulations reduced methamphetamine hospital admissions, but authors have argued that other problems were unaffected. This study examines whether the regulations impacted methamphetamine arrests.Design ARIMA-intervention time-series analysis with control series.Setting California (1982-2001).Measurement Dependent variable series: monthly methamphetamine arrests. Control series: monthly marijuana arrests and cocaine/heroin arrests.Interventions Bulk powder ephedrine and pseudoephedrine: regulated November 1989. Products containing ephedrine as the single active medicinal ingredient: regulated August 1995. Pseudoephedrine products: regulated October 1997. Large-scale producers used ephedrine and pseudoephedrine in these forms. Ephedrine combined with other active medicinal ingredients (e.g. various cold medicines)-used mainly by small-scale producers: regulated October 1996.Findings The regulation targeting small-scale producers (1996) had no significant impact. In contrast, methamphetamine arrests stopped rising and dropped 31% to 45% each of the three times precursor chemicals used by large-scale producers were regulated. Within 3 years of the bulk powder regulation (1989) and again within 2 years of the ephedrine single ingredient regulation (1995), arrests fully rebounded. During the 4 years following the last regulation (pseudoephedrine products, 1997) arrests only partially rebounded. These effects parallel those reported on hospital admissions. The control series were generally unaffected.Conclusions Precursor regulations targeting large-scale producers impacted methamphetamine arrests, a criminal justice problem, much as they impacted the public health problem of methamphetamine hospital admissions. Ongoing research is needed to determine whether these problems eventually fully rebound from the last regulation.