Malaria around large dams in Africa: effect of environmental and transmission endemicity factors
Malaria around large dams in Africa: effect of environmental and transmission endemicity factors
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DOI：
10.1186/s12936-019-2933-5
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发表时间：
2019-09-03
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Yan, Guiyun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kibret, Solomon;Lautze, Jonathan;Yan, Guiyun
背景大坝对疟疾的影响已受到广泛关注。然而，了解水坝地形和传播地方性如何影响疟疾发病率是有限的。方法来自欧洲委员会联合研究中心和航天飞机雷达地形使命的数据被用来确定水库周长和海岸线坡度的非洲水坝。疟疾地图项目的地理参照数据被用来估计水库沿岸社区的疟疾发病率。来自WorldPop数据库的人口数据被用来估计稳定和不稳定地区水坝周围的疟疾风险人口。数据显示，生活在撒哈拉以南非洲大型水坝附近（< 5公里）的人口从2000年的1440万增加到2015年的1870万。总体而言，在撒哈拉以南非洲，大坝每年造成70万至160万疟疾病例。虽然2000年至2015年期间稳定和不稳定地区的年度疟疾发病率均显着下降，但大坝的疟疾影响似乎在不稳定地区增加，但在稳定地区减少。海岸线坡度被认为是最重要的疟疾危险因素，在水库影响的地理，解释41-82%（P < 0.001）的疟疾发病率的变化。结论平缓、平缓的海岸线坡度与更大的疟疾风险相关。与水坝有关的环境变量，如水坝地形和海岸线坡度，是预测和控制水坝周围疟疾工作中应考虑的一个重要因素。
Background The impact of large dams on malaria has received widespread attention. However, understanding how dam topography and transmission endemicity influence malaria incidences is limited. Methods Data from the European Commission's Joint Research Center and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission were used to determine reservoir perimeters and shoreline slope of African dams. Georeferenced data from the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) were used to estimate malaria incidence rates in communities near reservoir shorelines. Population data from the WorldPop database were used to estimate the population at risk of malaria around dams in stable and unstable areas. Results The data showed that people living near (< 5 km) large dams in sub-Saharan Africa grew from 14.4 million in 2000 to 18.7 million in 2015. Overall, across sub-Saharan Africa between 0.7 and 1.6 million malaria cases per year are attributable to large dams. Whilst annual malaria incidence declined markedly in both stable and unstable areas between 2000 and 2015, the malaria impact of dams appeared to increase in unstable areas, but decreased in stable areas. Shoreline slope was found to be the most important malaria risk factor in dam-affected geographies, explaining 41-82% (P < 0.001) of the variation in malaria incidence around reservoirs. Conclusion Gentler, more gradual shoreline slopes were associated with much greater malaria risk. Dam-related environmental variables such as dam topography and shoreline slopes are an important factor that should be considered in efforts to predict and control malaria around dams.