Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon Part II. An assessment of the potential impacts of climate change
Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon Part II. An assessment of the potential impacts of climate change
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00484-003-0180-4
复制
发表时间：
2003-09-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Dessai, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dessai, S
全球环境变化，特别是气候变化，将对公众健康产生不利影响。热浪的频率/强度增加预计将增加与热有关的死亡率和疾病。为了量化里斯本与热有关的死亡率的气候风险，在第一部分中，根据1980年至1998年夏季的气候-死亡率关系，开发了一个统计模型。在第二部分中，气候和人口变化的情景被应用到模型中，以评估2020年代和2050年代对公共健康的潜在影响，即与热有关的死亡率。两个区域气候模型（RCMs）和不同的假设，季节性，驯化和估计的超额死亡，以明确表示不确定性。探索性贝叶斯分析用于研究结果对输入假设的敏感性。据估计，每年与高温有关的死亡率将从1980-1998年的5.4至6（每10万人）增加到2020年代的5.8至15.1。到21世纪50年代，潜在的增长范围从7.3到35.6。如果考虑到环境适应因素，死亡负担会降低。通过贝叶斯分析，它表明，对于测试的变量，未来热相关的死亡率是最敏感的RCM的选择和最少的计算方法的超额死亡。
Global environmental change, in particular climate change, will have adverse effects on public health. The increased frequency/intensity of heat waves is expected to increase heat-related mortality and illness. To quantify the climatic risks of heat-related mortality in Lisbon an empirical-statistical model was developed in Part I, based on the climate-mortality relationship of the summer months of 1980-1998. In Part II, scenarios of climate and population change are applied to the model to assess the potential impacts on public health in the 2020s and 2050s, in terms of crude heat-related mortality rates. Two regional climate models (RCMs) were used and different assumptions about seasonality, acclimatisation and the estimation of excess deaths were made in order to represent uncertainty explicitly. An exploratory Bayesian analysis was used to investigate the sensitivity of the result to input assumptions. Annual heat-related death rates are estimated to increase from between 5.4 and 6 (per 100,000) for 1980-1998 to between 5.8 and 15.1 for the 2020s. By the 2050s, the potential increase ranges from 7.3 to 35.6. The burden of deaths is decreased if acclimatisation is factored in. Through a Bayesian analysis it is shown that, for the tested variables, future heat-related mortality is most sensitive to the choice of RCM and least to the method of calculating the excess deaths.