Extreme Sensitivity and Climate Tipping Points
Extreme Sensitivity and Climate Tipping Points
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DOI：
10.1007/s10955-019-02425-x
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发表时间：
2019-05
影响因子：
1.6
通讯作者：
A. S. von der Heydt;P. Ashwin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. S. von der Heydt;P. Ashwin
接近临界点的气候状态将对扰动有退化的线性响应，这可能与平衡气候敏感性（ECS）的极值有关。在本文中，我们对比线性（“瞬时”）与完全非线性几何（“两点”）概念的ECS，在存在和不存在的临界点。对于一个随机能量平衡模型的全球平均表面温度与两个稳定的制度，我们确认，倾翻事件导致出现极端的ECS的两个概念。此外，在两点ECS中可以看到具有不同平均灵敏度的多个机制。我们在基于物理学的气候系统多箱模型中证实了我们的一些发现。
A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized (‘instantaneous’) with fully nonlinear geometric (‘two-point’) notions of ECS, in both presence and absence of tipping points. For a stochastic energy balance model of the global mean surface temperature with two stable regimes, we confirm that tipping events cause the appearance of extremes in both notions of ECS. Moreover, multiple regimes with different mean sensitivities are visible in the two-point ECS. We confirm some of our findings in a physics-based multi-box model of the climate system.