Interdecadal to multidecadal variability of East Asian summer monsoon over the past half millennium
Interdecadal to multidecadal variability of East Asian summer monsoon over the past half millennium
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过去半个世纪东亚夏季风的年代际至数十年变化
DOI：
10.1029/2022jd037260
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Guo Zhengtang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Shi Feng;Goosse Hugues;Li Jianping;Yin Qiuzhen;Ljungqvist Fredrik Charpentier;Lian Tao;Sun Cheng;Wang Lin;Wu Zhiwei;Li Juan;Zhao Sen;Xu Chenxi;Liu Wei;Liu Ting;Nakatsuka Takeshi;Guo Zhengtang
东亚夏季风（EASM）对东亚过去、现在和未来的生态系统和社会都起着至关重要的作用。然而，由于东亚仪器数据长度较短，东亚夏季风在年代际到多年代时间尺度上的变化仍然存在很大的不确定性。本研究将现代气象学研究中的东亚夏季风环流指数扩展到过去500年（1470-1998 CE）的古气候，以调和古气候和现代气象学研究中对东亚夏季风变率的理解。根据与东亚夏季风有关的三种主要类型的代理记录（树木年轮、洞穴沉积物和历史文献数据）的共同信号，重建了东亚夏季风指数。重建的东亚夏季风指数反映了华南地区梅雨和西南风异常在年代际到多年代时间尺度上的同步变化，这是现代气象学中可见的、有据可查的动态模式。对重建的东亚夏季风指数的分析表明，东亚夏季风的年代际到年代际变化与太平洋-日本遥相关型密切相关，它是太平洋年代际振荡负位相与西北太平洋反气旋环流异常之间的桥梁。这也表明，东亚夏季风近30年（1992-2021 CE）的变率福尔斯过去500年的自然变率范围。
The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) plays a crucial role for ecosystems and societies in East Asia past, present, and future. However, substantial uncertainties remain regarding EASM variability on interdecadal to multidecadal timescales because of the short length of instrumental data in East Asia. This study extended the EASM circulation index in the modern meteorological studies to the paleoclimate over the past half‐millennium (1470–1998 CE) to reconcile the understanding of the EASM variability in paleoclimate and modern meteorological studies. The EASM index is reconstructed based on the common signal from the three main types of the proxy records (the tree rings, speleothems, and historical documentary data) related to EASM. The reconstructed EASM index captures the simultaneous changes of the “Meiyuprecipitation” and the southwesterly anomalies in South China on interdecadal to multidecadal timescales, which is a dynamic pattern visible and well‐documented in the modern meteorology. Analysis of the reconstructed EASM index suggests that the interdecadal to multidecadal EASM variability is closely associated with the Pacific‐Japan teleconnection pattern, which acts as a bridge between the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific. It also indicates that the EASM variability over the recent 30 years (1992–2021 CE) falls within the range of natural variability over the past half‐millennium.