Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use emissions in Latin America
Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use emissions in Latin America
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DOI：
10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.020
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发表时间：
2016-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Loboguerrero Rodriguez, Ana Maria
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Calvin, Katherine V.;Beach, Robert;Loboguerrero Rodriguez, Ana Maria
2008年，拉丁美洲近40%的温室气体（GHG）排放来自农业、林业和其他土地利用（AFOLU），是全球AFOLU排放量的两倍多。在这篇文章中，我们调查了未来的轨迹AFOLU温室气体排放在拉丁美洲，有和没有努力减轻，使用多模型比较方法。我们发现，在有和没有气候政策的情况下，未来的排放存在很大的不确定性。这种不确定性是由于各种假设的差异，包括（1）生物能源的作用，（2）生物能源的生产地点和方式，（3）气候缓解政策中造林备选方案的可用性，以及（4）N2O和CH4排放强度。在气候政策方面，这些假设的差异可能导致减缓潜力的显著差异，三个模型表明AFOLU温室气体排放减少，一个模型表明AFOLU温室气体排放略有增加。(C)2016年巴特尔纪念研究所和作者。由爱思唯尔公司出版
Nearly 40% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Latin America were from agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) in 2008, more than double the global fraction of AFOLU emissions. In this article, we investigate the future trajectory of AFOLU GHG emissions in Latin America, with and without efforts to mitigate, using a multi model comparison approach. We find significant uncertainty in future emissions with and without climate policy. This uncertainty is due to differences in a variety of assumptions including (1) the role of bioenergy, (2) where and how bioenergy is produced, (3) the availability of afforestation options in climate mitigation policy, and (4) N2O and CH4 emission intensity. With climate policy, these differences in assumptions can lead to significant variance in mitigation potential, with three models indicating reductions in AFOLU GHG emissions and one model indicating modest increases in AFOLU GHG emissions. (C) 2016 Battelle Memorial Institute and The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.