Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture
Global food self-sufficiency in the 21st century under sustainable intensification of agriculture
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab9388
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发表时间：
2020-09-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
D'Odorico, Paolo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Beltran-Pena, Areidy;Rosa, Lorenzo;D'Odorico, Paolo
在不耗尽地球有限资源的情况下满足全球对农产品日益增长的需求，是人类面临的一项重大挑战。大多数关于全球粮食安全的研究都没有对2050年以后的情况进行预测，因为气候变化和粮食需求的增加预计会加剧。此外，过去的研究没有考虑到将灌溉扩展到目前的雨养地区的水可持续性限制。在这里，我们进行了综合评估，考虑了影响21世纪未来粮食生产和需求的一系列因素。考虑到饮食、人口、农业集约化和气候的变化，我们评估了165个国家在可持续性、中间道路和一切照旧情景下的自给自足情况。我们发现，在中间道路和一切照旧的轨迹下，尽管通过可持续农业集约化增加了粮食产量，但由于预计的粮食需求超过了潜在产量，全球粮食自给率可能会下降。相反，在可持续性情景下，我们估计将有足够的粮食生产来养活全球人口。然而，在所有情况下，非洲和中东的大多数国家在整个21世纪都将继续严重依赖进口。这些结果突出了作物生产不足、依赖粮食进口以及易受粮食供应冲击等未来热点问题。
Meeting the increasing global demand for agricultural products without depleting the limited resources of the planet is a major challenge that humanity is facing. Most studies on global food security do not make projections past the year 2050, just as climate change and increasing demand for food are expected to intensify. Moreover, past studies do not account for the water sustainability limits of irrigation expansion to presently rainfed areas. Here we perform an integrated assessment that considers a range of factors affecting future food production and demand throughout the 21st century. We evaluate the self-sufficiency of 165 countries under sustainability, middle-of-the-road, and business-as-usual scenarios considering changes in diet, population, agricultural intensification, and climate. We find that under both the middle-of-the-road and business-as-usual trajectories global food self-sufficiency is likely to decline despite increased food production through sustainable agricultural intensification since projected food demand exceeds potential production. Contrarily, under a sustainability scenario, we estimate that there will be enough food production to feed the global population. However, most countries in Africa and the Middle East will continue to be heavily reliant on imports throughout the 21st century under all scenarios. These results highlight future hotspots of crop production deficits, reliance on food imports, and vulnerability to food supply shocks.