Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification
Greenhouse gas mitigation by agricultural intensification
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0914216107
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发表时间：
2010-06-29
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Lobell, David B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Burney, Jennifer A.;Davis, Steven J.;Lobell, David B.
随着减缓气候变化的努力的增加，有必要确定具有成本效益的方法，以避免温室气体的排放。人们正确地认识到，农业是大量排放的来源，同时也有缓解的机会。虽然未来的农业生产力至关重要，因为它将影响从本土景观到粮食和生物燃料作物的转化所产生的排放，但很少提到农业研究投资是一项缓解战略。在这里，我们估计1961年至2005年之间的历史农业集约化对温室气体排放的净影响。我们发现，虽然肥料生产和施用等因素的排放量增加了，但自1961年以来，更高产量的净效应避免了高达161亿吨碳（GtC）（590 GtCO（2）e）的排放。我们估计，与1961年的技术（14.74美元/tC，或类似于4美元/tCO（2）e）相比，农业产量上每投资1美元，就会减少68 kgC（249 kgCO（2）e）的排放量，每年避免3.6 GtC（13.1 GtCO（2）e）。我们的分析表明，在产量提高投资相比，其他常用的缓解策略。因此，在减少未来温室气体排放量的努力中，进一步提高产量应是突出的。
As efforts to mitigate climate change increase, there is a need to identify cost-effective ways to avoid emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Agriculture is rightly recognized as a source of considerable emissions, with concomitant opportunities for mitigation. Although future agricultural productivity is critical, as it will shape emissions from conversion of native landscapes to food and biofuel crops, investment in agricultural research is rarely mentioned as a mitigation strategy. Here we estimate the net effect on GHG emissions of historical agricultural intensification between 1961 and 2005. We find that while emissions from factors such as fertilizer production and application have increased, the net effect of higher yields has avoided emissions of up to 161 gigatons of carbon (GtC) (590 GtCO(2)e) since 1961. We estimate that each dollar invested in agricultural yields has resulted in 68 fewer kgC (249 kgCO(2)e) emissions relative to 1961 technology ($14.74/tC, or similar to$4/tCO(2)e), avoiding 3.6 GtC (13.1 GtCO(2)e) per year. Our analysis indicates that investment in yield improvements compares favorably with other commonly proposed mitigation strategies. Further yield improvements should therefore be prominent among efforts to reduce future GHG emissions.