Cold range edges of marine fishes track climate change better than warm edges
Cold range edges of marine fishes track climate change better than warm edges
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.15035
复制
发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Halpern, Benjamin S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fredston-Hermann, Alexa;Selden, Rebecca;Halpern, Benjamin S.
世界各地的物种正在改变它们的活动范围以应对气候变化。为了对与气候相关的殖民和迁移做出可靠的预测，了解范围边缘的动态至关重要。这项研究是第一个研究冷和温暖的范围边缘的年度动态，因为大多数全球变化研究平均观测数据在空间或时间。我们分析了海洋鱼类的年度范围边缘动态-无论是在单个物种的水平，并汇集到冷，暖边组合-在几十年的时间序列拖网调查期间进行的美国东北部大陆架的快速变暖。我们测试了冷边缘是否比暖边缘显示出更强的气候跟踪证据（由于暖边缘的非气候过程或时间滞后;地理学假说或灭绝债假说），或者它们是否同样跟踪温度变化（由于栖息地适宜性的影响;生态生理学假说）。除了探索与区域温度变化的相关性，我们计算了物种和组合特定的海底和海面温度等温线，并用它们来预测范围边缘位置。冷边进一步转移和跟踪海面和海底温度等温线在更大程度上比温暖的边缘。混合效应模型显示，等温线位置的纬度移动一度，冷边缘移动0.47纬度，暖边缘仅移动0.28度。我们的研究结果表明，寒冷的山脉边缘跟踪气候变化比温暖的山脉边缘，无效的生态生理学假设。我们还发现，即使在全球变暖热点地区的高度移动的海洋外温动物中，也很少有物种完全跟上气候的步伐。
Species around the world are shifting their ranges in response to climate change. To make robust predictions about climate-related colonizations and extinctions, it is vital to understand the dynamics of range edges. This study is among the first to examine annual dynamics of cold and warm range edges, as most global change studies average observational data over space or over time. We analyzed annual range edge dynamics of marine fishes-both at the individual species level and pooled into cold- and warm-edge assemblages-in a multi-decade time-series of trawl surveys conducted on the Northeast US Shelf during a period of rapid warming. We tested whether cold edges show stronger evidence of climate tracking than warm edges (due to non-climate processes or time lags at the warm edge; the biogeography hypothesis or extinction debt hypothesis), or whether they tracked temperature change equally (due to the influence of habitat suitability; the ecophysiology hypothesis). In addition to exploring correlations with regional temperature change, we calculated species- and assemblage-specific sea bottom and sea surface temperature isotherms and used them to predict range edge position. Cold edges shifted further and tracked sea surface and bottom temperature isotherms to a greater degree than warm edges. Mixed-effects models revealed that for a one-degree latitude shift in isotherm position, cold edges shifted 0.47 degrees of latitude, and warm edges shifted only 0.28 degrees. Our results suggest that cold range edges are tracking climate change better than warm range edges, invalidating the ecophysiology hypothesis. We also found that even among highly mobile marine ectotherms in a global warming hotspot, few species are fully keeping pace with climate.