Spatially explicit and multiscale ecosystem shift probabilities and risk severity assessments in the greater Mekong subregion over three decades.
Spatially explicit and multiscale ecosystem shift probabilities and risk severity assessments in the greater Mekong subregion over three decades.
复制标题
三十年来大湄公河次区域的空间明确和多尺度生态系统转移概率和风险严重性评估。
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149281
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发表时间：
2021-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Felix Ndayisaba
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Alphonse Kayiranga;Baozhang Chen;Huifang Zhang;Winny Nthangeni;Simon Measho;Felix Ndayisaba
生态系统的功能和相关风险可能因气候变化而受到损害，并以不同方式严重影响牲畜。根据四个气候指数（即，SPI，SPEI，PDSI和SEDI），牲畜决定因素和地球化学代理，我们分析了陆地生态系统转移概率的时间和地理范围以及多尺度（即，利用不同的制图技术，对1981-2020年期间大湄公河次区域（GMS）的土地覆盖、气候和海拔进行了研究。结果表明，在GMS地区，约3.8%的人经历了最高的生态系统转移概率，4%的人暴露于干旱和潮湿的高风险，只有约55%的人经历了干旱和/或潮湿胁迫的低风险。与其他GMS国家相比，柬埔寨和泰国经历了最高的生态系统转移概率比和干旱-潮湿风险严重程度。木本稀树草原和城市土地覆盖;温带-完全湿冷的夏季和热带降雨完全湿润的气候区;海拔−47-200 m和≥2500 m显示出导致非常高的生态系统转移概率的共同特征，并经历了高干旱-潮湿风险严重程度。这项研究提供了有用的信息，可以在区域和国家范围内，在气候和地球物理方面的变化的背景下，有力地控制和改善未来的陆地。
Ecosystem functioning and related risks could become compromised by climate change and severely affect livestock in different ways. Based on four climate indices (i.e., SPI, SPEI, PDSI and SEDI), livestock determinants and biogeochemical proxies, we analysed the temporal and geographical extent of terrestrial ecosystem shift probabilities and drought-wetness risk severity at multiple scales (i.e., land cover, climate and elevation) in the greater Mekong subregion (GMS) during the period 1981–2020 by using different cartographic techniques. The results indicated that in the GMS area, approximately 3.8% experienced the highest ecosystem shift probability, 4% was exposed to a high risk of drought and wetness, and only approximately 55% experienced a low risk of drought and/or wetness stress. Cambodia and Thailand experienced the highest ecosystem shift probability ratio and drought-wetness risk severity compared to other GMS countries. Woody savanna and urban land covers; temperate-fully humid-cold summer and tropical rainfall fully humid climate zones; and elevations −47–200 m and ≥2500 m showed common characteristics leading to a very high ecosystem shift probability and experienced high drought-wetness risk severity. This study provides useful information that may exert to a strong control and improved future terrestrial in the context of changes in climate and biogeophysical aspects at the regional and country scales.