Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy-making: art or science?
Uncertainty in macroeconomic policy-making: art or science?
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DOI：
10.1098/rsta.2011.0299
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发表时间：
2011-12-13
期刊：
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Yates, Tony
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aikman, David;Barrett, Philip;Yates, Tony
不确定性在经济政策制定中无处不在。现代经济在不可预测性方面与其他复杂系统有相似之处。但经济系统也不同于自然科学系统，因为结果受到系统参与者的信念状态的影响。信念的动态及其与经济结果的相互作用可能是丰富和不可预测的。本文将这些想法与最近的危机联系在一起，这场危机提醒我们，我们需要一个面对不可预测和极端情况时具有弹性的金融体系。它还突显出这种不确定性是如何让政策制定者重视健全的沟通策略的。这就带来了向其他人通报经济中的不确定性，以及如何在面对这些不确定性的情况下制定政策的挑战。我们在关于货币政策的沟通中展示了英国央行如何努力应对其中一些挑战。
Uncertainty is pervasive in economic policy-making. Modern economies share similarities with other complex systems in their unpredictability. But economic systems also differ from those in the natural sciences because outcomes are affected by the state of beliefs of the systems' participants. The dynamics of beliefs and how they interact with economic outcomes can be rich and unpredictable. This paper relates these ideas to the recent crisis, which has reminded us that we need a financial system that is resilient in the face of the unpredictable and extreme. It also highlights how such uncertainty puts a premium on sound communication strategies by policy-makers. This creates challenges in informing others about the uncertainties in the economy, and how policy is set in the face of those uncertainties. We show how the Bank of England tries to deal with some of these challenges in its communications about monetary policy.