How High is Hispanic/Mexican Fertility in the United States? Immigration and Tempo Considerations
How High is Hispanic/Mexican Fertility in the United States? Immigration and Tempo Considerations
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美国的西班牙裔/墨西哥裔生育率有多高？
DOI：
10.1007/s13524-011-0045-0
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
E. Parrado
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Parrado
在这篇文章中，我证明了美国西班牙裔/墨西哥裔妇女明显更高的生育率几乎完全是对移民妇女的时期估计的产物，移民生育率的时期测量受到三个严重的偏见来源的影响，这些偏见共同严重夸大了生育率水平：估计移民群体规模的困难；迁移：在生命的某一特定阶段发生迁移的趋势；最重要的是，女性在移民后不久就生育的趋势。当考虑到这些偏见的来源时，西班牙裔/墨西哥裔妇女的生育率非常接近更替水平。此外，美国移民妇女的完整生育率大大低于从时期计算中得到的水平。研究结果与移民同化的经典理论一致，但与以前的研究和已发表的统计数据中发现的模式大相径庭。其主要含义是，如果移民水平不发生重大变化，目前基于西班牙裔高生育率的预测可能会大大夸大西班牙裔人口的增长，其对该国种族-种族特征的影响，以及其抵消人口老龄化的潜力。
In this article, I demonstrate that the apparently much higher fertility of Hispanic/Mexican women in the United States is almost exclusively the product of period estimates obtained for immigrant women and that period measures of immigrant fertility suffer from three serious sources of bias that together significantly overstate fertility levels: difficulties in estimating the size of immigrant groups; the tendency for migration to occur at a particular stage in life; and, most importantly, the tendency for women to have a birth soon after migration. When these sources of bias are taken into consideration, the fertility of native Hispanic/Mexican women is very close to replacement level. In addition, the completed fertility of immigrant women in the United States is dramatically lower than the level obtained from period calculations. Findings are consistent with classical theories of immigrant assimilation but are a striking departure from the patterns found in previous studies and published statistics. The main implication is that without a significant change in immigration levels, current projections based on the premise of high Hispanic fertility are likely to considerably exaggerate Hispanic population growth, its impact on the ethno-racial profile of the country, and its potential to counteract population aging.