Toward a Long-Term Economic Damage Reduction from an Urban Disaster: Lessons from the 1995 Kobe Earthquake
Toward a Long-Term Economic Damage Reduction from an Urban Disaster: Lessons from the 1995 Kobe Earthquake
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减少城市灾难造成的长期经济损失：1995 年神户地震的教训
DOI：
10.1007/978-981-16-5979-9_7
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Toshihisa Toyoda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Toshihisa Toyoda
我首先给出了1995年阪神地震(以下简称神户地震或神户情商)造成的长期经济损失或所谓间接经济损失的重新估计结果。我将间接损失定义为受灾地区地区生产总值(GRP)的无灾害趋势值与实际GRP之间的差额。我显示，受影响的地区经济在相当长的一段时间内继续停滞不前，导致其间接损失总额超过官方公布的直接损失价值，即9.9万亿美元。基于这一估计，我探讨了一些政策含义，以减少日本或其他地方未来可能发生的重大城市灾难造成的长期经济损失。我最显著的发现是，不仅供给侧的破坏，而且住房投资和私人消费等需求因素也是长期停滞的主要影响因素。然而，神户在经历了20多年的斗争后经济复苏的经验表明，当地政府的产业政策对于从一场城市大灾难中长期和可持续地复苏非常重要。
I first present a re-estimation result of the long-term economic damage or the so-called indirect economic loss caused by the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake (Hereafter, I call it Kobe Earthquake or Kobe EQ). I define the indirect loss as the difference between the without-disaster trend values of Gross Regional Product (GRP) and the actual GRP in the affected area. I show that the affected regional economy continued to be stagnant for a quite long period, resulting in its total values of indirect loss which exceed the officially announced direct loss values, i.e., ?9.9 trillion. Based on this estimation, I pursue some policy implications to reduce long-term economic damage from future possible great urban disasters in Japan or elsewhere. It is my most significant finding is that, not only the destruction of supply side, but also such demand factors as housing investment and private consumption were major influential factors for the long-term stagnation. Nevertheless, the Kobe experience of its economic recovery after a more than two decades struggle shows that the industrial policy of the local government is very important for a long-term and sustainable recovery from a great urban disaster.
灾难期间的经济结构变化
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
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作者：
宿利正史;軸丸真二 編;Yasuhide Okuyama
通讯作者：
Yasuhide Okuyama