Predicting prognosis in patients with advanced cancer: A prospective study
Predicting prognosis in patients with advanced cancer: A prospective study
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DOI：
10.1177/0269216317705788
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发表时间：
2018-02-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Rocha, Ceu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Tavares, Teresa;Oliveira, Margarida;Rocha, Ceu
背景：预后是医生面临的最具挑战性的问题之一。准确预测生存期是必要的临床，伦理，和organizational reasons.Aim：评估年轻医生的临床预测生存和艾滋病，他们可以得到：专家意见，姑息预后评分，姑息预后指数设计：前瞻性，观察性研究设置/参与者：晚期癌症患者的观察下，在医院姑息治疗团队，从2014年4月至7月。共纳入38例患者，大多数为男性（65.8%），平均年龄68.5岁。平均生存期24天。结果：青年医生对生存率的临床预测准确率为10.5%，严重错误率为55.3%。姑息治疗专家更充分（23.7%），犯的错误不太严重（42.1%）。姑息性预后评分和姑息性预后指数甚至更充分（分别为47%和55%），错误更少（分别为0%和11%）。当姑息治疗专家使用姑息预后评分时，与观察到的生存率的相关性最好（r（s）=-0.629; p
Background: Prognosis is one of the most challenging questions with which physicians are confronted. Accuracy in the prediction of survival is necessary for clinical, ethical, and organizational reasons.Aim: Evaluate young doctors' clinical prediction of survival and the aids they could get: expert opinion, Palliative Prognostic score, and Palliative Prognostic Index.Design: Prospective, observational study.Setting/participants: Advanced cancer patients under observation of an inhospital palliative care team, from April to July 2014. A total of 38 patients were included, mostly male (65.8%), average age 68.5years. Average survival time was 24days. Follow-up concluded with death or after 90days.Results: Young doctors' clinical prediction of survival was adequate at 10.5%, with 55.3% severe errors in an optimistic direction. Palliative care experts were more adequate (23.7%) and made less severe errors (42.1%). Palliative Prognostic score and Palliative Prognostic Index were even more adequate (47% and 55%, respectively) and made even less severe errors (0% and 11%, respectively). The best correlation with observed survival was achieved when palliative care experts used palliative prognostic score (r(s)=-0.629; p