Prediction of carbon exchanges between China terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere in 21st century
Prediction of carbon exchanges between China terrestrial ecosystem and atmosphere in 21st century
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DOI：
10.1007/s11430-008-0039-y
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发表时间：
2008-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Li KeRang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ji JinJun;Huang Mei;Li KeRang
利用大气-植被相互作用模式（AVIM 2）研究了21世纪中国陆地生态系统与大气之间的碳交换以及植被和土壤碳储量的预测变化。结果表明，在未来100 a内，在SRES B2情景和大气CO2浓度不变的情况下，中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力（NPP）将缓慢下降，植被和土壤碳储量以及净生态系统生产力（NEP）也将下降。20世纪初中国陆地生态系统的碳汇到2020年将完全变为碳源，而在B2情景下，随着大气CO2浓度的变化，中国的NPP将从20世纪末的2.94 GtC center. a（-1）持续增加到21世纪末的3.99 GtC center. a（-1）。植被和土壤碳储量将增加到110.3 GtC。中国的新经济增长率在世纪的前、中期将继续上升，在2050年代左右达到峰值，然后逐渐下降，到世纪末接近于零。
The projected changes in carbon exchange between China terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere and vegetation and soil carbon storage during the 21st century were investigated using an atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (AVIM2). The results show that in the coming 100 a, for SRES B2 scenario and constant atmospheric CO2 concentration, the net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystem in China will be decreased slowly, and vegetation and soil carbon storage as well as net ecosystem productivity (NEP) will also be decreased. The carbon sink for China terrestrial ecosystem in the beginning of the 20th century will become totally a carbon source by the year of 2020, while for B2 scenario and changing atmospheric CO2 concentration, NPP for China will increase continuously from 2.94 GtC center dot a(-1) by the end of the 20th century to 3.99 GtC center dot a(-1) by the end of the 21st century, and vegetation and soil carbon storage will increase to 110.3 GtC. NEP in China will keep rising during the first and middle periods of the 21st century, and reach the peak around 2050s, then will decrease gradually and approach to zero by the end of the 21st century.